This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Leo Carlsson
Anaheim Ducks Center
Nineteen years old, even on the chances, and his ice lost twenty-two goals.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | ANA | 55 | 12 | 17 | 29 | -11 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 11.0 | 18:07 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 55 | 12 | 17 | 29 | -11 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 109 | 11.0 | 18:07 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
12 goals and 17 assists in 55 games — 29 points at 18:07 a night, minus-11, with 4 power-play goals on 109 shots, converting at 11.01 per cent, and 16 penalty minutes. His first NHL season, at 19.
50.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 803 minutes, the 52nd percentile — the only regular on this club at even chances. His ice went 20-42 against an expectation of 33.50-33.49.
That is the report in one line. The chances were exactly even and the goals were 20-42. A nineteen-year-old broke even against NHL opposition and was outscored by twenty-two, and almost none of it was his.
The Finesse Game
109 attempts at a median of 26 feet, with 42 per cent from inside 20 and 18 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 11.01 per cent.
The hockey sense is the best on this club and it is not close. He slows the game rather than speeding it up — he holds the puck a half-second past where a defenceman expects and the seam opens because of the delay rather than in spite of it. The passing is a first-line centre’s already.
Twelve goals in fifty-five games at nineteen, from a man who shoots from the middle of the ice rather than from the wall.
The Physical Game
6-3 and 208 at 19, and the body has not arrived yet. He protects the puck better than he wins it, and he will be moved off a wall by a grown defenceman.
16 penalty minutes in 55 games. He does not agitate, he does not retaliate, and there is nothing here to correct — the strength comes on its own.
The Intangibles
Second overall in 2023, out of Örebro, and an NHL centre at 18 playing eighteen minutes a night.
Everything about this season is encouraging except the goal column on his ice, and that column belongs to the roster rather than to him. He is the reason this club has a future and he is the one player on it who would be a top-six forward on any team in the league tomorrow.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 803 minutes
- Expected goals
- 50%
- 53rd pct
- Shot attempts
- 50.4%
- 58th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 42 against. Expected: 33.5 and 33.5.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 35 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 41 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 803 minutes at five-on-five
- Troy Terry70%
- Alex Killorn59%
- Adam Henriquenow EDM21%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.0% — 4.1 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 803 minutes at five-on-five — 39th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry | 50.0% | 49.9% | 41.7% |
| Alex Killorn | 50.1% | 49.8% | 44.4% |
| Cam Fowler | 47.5% | 51.7% | 45.7% |
50.0% together, 49.9% for him apart and 41.7% for Terry apart. Terry was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Terry than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
146 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.