Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Vladislav Gavrikov

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense

Eighty games at 22:17 with 3:09 of it shorthanded, the 97th percentile, and 68 penalty minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20CBJ6951318+118001816.218:59
2020-21CBJ5521012-1314001484.219:24
2021-22CBJ8052833-3680011084.622:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—204125163-151000032375.120:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 28 assists in 80 games — 33 points at 22:17 a night, minus-3, with 68 penalty minutes.

45.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,495 minutes, the 14th percentile among defencemen — more minutes than anyone else on the club. His ice went 69-84 against an expectation of 60.18-72.28.

3:09 a night shorthanded is the 97th percentile among defencemen. Columbus killed at 7.012 expected goals against per 60, 18th, which on a club that finished 32nd in even-strength defence is the part that worked.

The Finesse Game

23 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 98th percentile among defencemen, on a median distance of 45 feet. He does not shoot often — 3.63 per 60, the 31st percentile — but when he does he has walked in first.

1.14 giveaways per 60 is the 21st-lowest of the 202 qualified defencemen, and 1.26 even-strength points per 60 is the 82nd percentile. He is a simple, correct passer whose value is that the puck does not come back.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 210, 4.17 hits and 4.64 blocks per 60, both close to the middle of the position. He is not a punisher and he is not a stick-checker; he closes gaps and finishes the check that is there.

1.08 penalties taken per 60 is the 88th percentile among defencemen and it is a fault, not a virtue — 68 penalty minutes, and his drawn-minus-taken of minus-0.71 is the 6th percentile. Twenty-two minutes a night against the other side’s best is the explanation and not the excuse.

38.5 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 2nd percentile — the lowest share of any defenceman here.

The Intangibles

One hundred and fifty-ninth overall in 2015, sixth round, and 204 NHL games at 26 after four seasons in the KHL.

He is the only defenceman here who takes hard minutes and does not leak the puck, on a club that has just spent its summer on offence and has the worst even-strength defensive record in the league to repair.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    23.0% of his attempts in the slot, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    34% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “3:09 a night shorthanded is the 97th percentile among defencemen.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.08 penalties taken per 60 is the 88th percentile among defencemen and it is a fault, not a virtue”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,495 minutes

Expected goals
45.4%
20th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.2%
31st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 69 for, 84 against. Expected: 60.2 and 72.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
20th

The report ranks him 38 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
96th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.93 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.97 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.2 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1495 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.4% — 0.6 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,495 minutes at five-on-five — 97th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Andrew Peeke42.7%47.2%44.5%
Sean Kuraly49.7%43.7%42.6%
Gustav Nyquist45.0%45.6%42.7%

42.7% together, 47.2% for him apart and 44.5% for Peeke apart. He was better away from Peeke, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Peeke.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

139 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 19% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 63% from beyond forty.