Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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14

Gustav Nyquist

Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing

Fifty-three points on five shots per 60 — the 11th percentile in volume and the 79th in conversion.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12DET18167+22000195.310:36
2012-13DET2233606000466.513:02
2013-14DET57282048+161060615318.316:51
2014-15DET82272754-1126140419513.916:39
2015-16DET82172643-23470316110.615:10
2016-17DET761236480182021657.317:26
2017-18DET82211940-2203022139.917:51
2018-19DET/SJS81223860+11220320410.817:31
2019-20CBJ70152742+4163131519.918:02
2021-22CBJ82183553-122644012214.817:50
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—652164237401-417041523142911.516:50

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 35 assists in 82 games — 53 points at 17:50 a night, minus-12, with 26 penalty minutes.

43.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,143 minutes, the 10th percentile among forwards. His ice went 59-77 against an expectation of 44.81-58.2 — fifteen more goals for than the chances promised and nineteen more against, the largest such gap on this roster.

He missed the whole of 2020-21 to shoulder surgery and came back at 32 to play all 82.

The Finesse Game

5.00 shots per 60 is the 11th percentile among forwards and 14.8 per cent of them went in, the 79th. He shoots rarely and from close — a median 21 feet with 58 per cent from the slot, the 75th percentile — and 122 shots produced 18 goals.

1.03 giveaways per 60 is the 75th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards, the 19th percentile. He is a tidy, low-risk possession player whose points come from arriving rather than from carrying.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 180, 1.68 hits per 60 is the 16th percentile among forwards. There is no contact in his game at all.

1:46 a night shorthanded is the 84th percentile among forwards and he took four shorthanded points, which is where a low-volume shooter with good hands is worth the most.

84.0 mph is the 12th percentile among forwards. The release is quick and the shot is not hard, and the 14.8 per cent is a placement number.

The Intangibles

One hundred and twenty-first overall in 2008, and 652 games with 401 points across Detroit, San Jose and here.

He is 33. On a club that has just added a 115-point winger and needs to move salary, a productive right wing in his thirties is the most tradeable thing Columbus owns.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:46 a night shorthanded is the 84th percentile among forwards”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,143 minutes

Expected goals
43.5%
12th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.3%
24th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 77 against. Expected: 44.8 and 58.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
12th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 56 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
57th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.87 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.69 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.0 mph
35th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1143 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.5% — 1.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,143 minutes at five-on-five — 81st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Zach Werenski47.1%41.2%44.8%
Boone Jenner40.2%45.6%44.5%
Andrew Peeke41.6%44.5%44.6%

47.1% together, 41.2% for him apart and 44.8% for Werenski apart. He was worse away from Werenski, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Werenski did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

163 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.