Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

JG

Julien Gauthier

New York Rangers Right Wing

The most sprints of 365 forwards, the shortest median shot distance of 393, and three goals in forty-nine games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20CAR/NYR17033+18000100.08:17
2020-21NYR30268-614000385.39:39
2021-22NYR49347-98001694.310:18
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—9651318-14300011174.39:44

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

49 games, 3 goals and 4 assists at 10:18 a night, minus-9, eight penalty minutes, 69 shots. Twenty-first overall in 2016 by Carolina, three seasons, 96 games, 18 points.

Ten minutes and eighteen seconds a night is the 3rd percentile for ice time among forwards.

The Finesse Game

Seventy-one per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 13-foot median — the 98th percentile and the shortest of all 393 qualified forwards.

Nobody in the league shoots from closer to the net, and it went in 4.3 per cent of the time, the 3rd percentile. Three goals on sixty-nine shots taken from thirteen feet.

8.20 shots per 60 is the 64th percentile at ten minutes a night, so the volume is not the problem either.

0.87 even-strength points per 60 is the 4th percentile — the lowest of any Ranger who played forty games.

46.5 per cent of the expected goals and 45.6 per cent of the attempts, from 57.9 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 101st-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. That is soft usage and the shares are poor out of it.

The Physical Game

11.64 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among forwards at 6-4 and 230 pounds. 1.07 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.48 taken is the 92nd-percentile net, and eight penalty minutes came out of forty-nine games.

He is enormous, he hits, and he does not cross the line.

The Intangibles

21.3 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at a 23.9 mph top speed in the 98th percentile and 6-4 and 230 pounds.

He sprints more often than any forward in the league and covers 9.87 miles per 60, the 70th percentile — which means the sprints are short.

He is 25, a first-round pick, and has 96 NHL games and five goals in three seasons.

A 6-4, 230-pound winger who is the fastest and hardest-working sprinter in the league and takes every shot from thirteen feet has produced eighteen points in three years. Whatever is missing is not in this file, and the file is unusually loud about everything that is present.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    71.3% of his attempts in the slot, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.16 penalty minutes a game over 49, 10th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “21.3 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at a 23.9 mph top speed in the 98th percentile and 6-4 and 230 pounds.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “Seventy-one per cent of his shots came from the slot at a 13-foot median — the 98th percentile and the shortest of all 393 qualified forwards.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 494 minutes

Expected goals
46.5%
27th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.6%
18th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 22 against. Expected: 19.6 and 22.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
27th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 49 games

Top speed
23.9 mph
99th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
3.65 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.70 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.2 mph
57th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 494 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYR took 46.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.5% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 494 minutes at five-on-five — 18th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Filip Chytil52.4%40.0%46.8%
Alexis Lafrenière50.5%43.5%46.8%
Jacob Trouba45.9%46.7%47.9%

52.4% together, 40.0% for him apart and 46.8% for Chytil apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

94 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 64% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.