Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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34

Adam Boqvist

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense

Eleven goals on 64 shots — 17.2 per cent, the highest conversion rate of the 202 qualified defencemen.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20CHI414913-36001508.016:13
2020-21CHI3521416-714100395.116:59
2021-22CBJ52111122-11123016417.217:03
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—128173451-213240215311.116:46

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 11 assists in 52 games — 22 points at 17:03 a night, minus-11, with 12 penalty minutes.

45.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 766 minutes, the 17th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 40-44 against an expectation of 31.2-36.94, so both ends outran the chances.

He came from Chicago in the summer of 2021 and this was his first season as a full-time NHL defenceman.

The Finesse Game

Eleven goals on 64 shots is 17.2 per cent — the highest shooting percentage of the 202 qualified defencemen. Sixty-four shots in 52 games is an ordinary volume; the conversion is not, and 20 per cent of them came from the slot, the 94th percentile.

1:56 a night on the power play is the 78th percentile among defencemen and 27 per cent of his points came there. 1.22 even-strength points per 60 is the 80th percentile. The offence is real and it is the reason he is in the lineup.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 195, 1.76 hits and 3.18 blocks per 60, the 10th and 16th percentiles among defencemen. He is 21 and he defends like it.

8.5 miles skated per 60 is the 97th percentile among defencemen against a top speed of 21.4 mph at the 20th. He is always moving and never fast, which for a small offensive defenceman is the shape you would rather not see — the escape has to come from somewhere, and here it is coming from work rather than from speed.

The Intangibles

Eighth overall in 2018, 128 NHL games at 22, and 51 points in them.

Three seasons in and the shape has not changed: the puck skills score, the chance share does not, and he has never cleared 52 games in a year. Nothing measured here says whether the games are the cause or the symptom.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    19.6% of his attempts in the slot, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    59% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 93rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “1.76 hits and 3.18 blocks per 60, the 10th and 16th percentiles among defencemen.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 766 minutes

Expected goals
45.8%
22nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.1%
38th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 44 against. Expected: 31.2 and 36.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
22nd

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 49 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 52 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
41st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.46 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.58 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.2 mph
31st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 766 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.8% — 1.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
766 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vladislav Gavrikov50.9%43.3%44.3%
Cole Sillinger45.5%45.9%44.8%
Jakub Voracek45.0%46.0%42.8%

50.9% together, 43.3% for him apart and 44.3% for Gavrikov apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

92 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 50% from beyond forty.