Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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52

Sean Kuraly

Columbus Blue Jackets Center

Eleven point eight hits per 60 at the 93rd percentile, 2:22 shorthanded at the 98th, and the 7th-lowest share of offensive-zone time among forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17BOS8011-12000110.09:12
2017-18BOS756814-5400011344.512:15
2018-19BOS7181321+6380031346.013:46
2019-20BOS6961723-234000956.313:17
2020-21BOS47459-1020002884.514:04
2021-22CBJ77141630+26100012111.615:52
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—347386098-101950065836.513:45

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 16 assists in 77 games — 30 points at 15:52 a night, plus-2, with 61 penalty minutes.

45.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,004 minutes, the 17th percentile among forwards. His ice went 44-49 against an expectation of 38.09-44.93.

Fourteen goals is a career high by six, in his first year away from Boston.

The Finesse Game

5.94 shots per 60 is the 24th percentile among forwards and 11.6 per cent went in. A median 27 feet with 48 per cent from the slot. Thirty points is the most he has scored and it is not what he is here for.

1.64 even-strength points per 60 is the 40th percentile and 3 per cent of his points came on the power play. He is a five-on-five and shorthanded player, and the club uses him as exactly that.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 208. 11.79 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among forwards — more than any other Columbus forward who cleared 500 minutes — and 2.51 blocks per 60 is the 83rd.

2:22 a night shorthanded is the 98th percentile among forwards. 37.5 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 7th-lowest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers.

1.23 penalties taken per 60 is the 86th percentile and it is a fault — 61 penalty minutes, and a drawn-minus-taken of minus-0.54 at the 6th percentile. The hitting comes with a bill.

The Intangibles

One hundred and thirty-third overall in 2011 by San Jose, and 347 games across Boston and here with 98 points.

He is 29, and he does the job nobody wants on a club that needs it done more than most: Columbus allowed 3.080 expected goals against per 60 at even strength, more than any other club in the league, and somebody has to take those shifts.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    29% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 3rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “11.79 hits per 60 is the 93rd percentile among forwards”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:22 a night shorthanded is the 98th percentile among forwards.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.23 penalties taken per 60 is the 86th percentile and it is a fault”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,004 minutes

Expected goals
45.9%
22nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.3%
32nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 49 against. Expected: 38.1 and 44.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
22nd

The report ranks him 36 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 77 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.84 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.66 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.0 mph
76th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1004 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.9% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 1,004 minutes at five-on-five — 61st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Eric Robinson45.4%46.4%46.8%
Vladislav Gavrikov49.7%42.6%43.7%
Andrew Peeke44.9%46.6%43.3%

45.4% together, 46.4% for him apart and 46.8% for Robinson apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

147 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.