Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

17

Tyson Jost

Buffalo Sabres Center

Tenth overall in 2016, 413 games, and a fourth-line job on his third club.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17COL6101-50000911.115:41
2017-18COL65121022-102650111310.614:38
2018-19COL70111526-2144031149.713:00
2019-20COL6781523+11221001157.012:46
2020-21COL5471017+1424001927.614:07
2021-22COL/MIN8081220+234002978.312:50
2022-23MIN/BUF7171825-1334000987.113:15
2023-24 so far
Career4135480134-315410076388.513:25

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 18 assists in 71 games split between Minnesota and Buffalo — 25 points at 13:15 a night, minus-13, on 98 shots, converting at 7.14 per cent, and 34 penalty minutes.

48.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 838 minutes, the 41st percentile. His ice went 32-44 against an expectation of 33.54-35.21 — nine more goals conceded than the chances predicted.

The Finesse Game

98 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 43 per cent from inside 20, off a shot measured at 83.9 mph, the 8th percentile.

54 goals in 413 career games. The shot has never been good enough and the finishing has never arrived. 80 assists says the passing is the better half, and a fourth-line centre who can make a play is worth having.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 187 and he competes hard without being heavy — 154 penalty minutes in 413 games.

The skating is fine at 21.7 mph, the 21st percentile in top speed, and 2.20 miles a game at the 25th. Neither number supports a player who is going to beat somebody one-on-one, and the game is played inside a structure rather than outside one.

The Intangibles

Tenth overall in 2016, out of North Dakota, and seven seasons on three clubs without ever becoming what the pick implied.

He is 25. He is the fourth-line centre on a club with five better ones behind him, which is a precarious place to be, and the most likely outcome of this season is a waiver claim or a minor-league assignment rather than a role.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “80 assists says the passing is the better half, and a fourth-line centre who can make a play is worth having.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “the game is played inside a structure rather than outside one”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 838 minutes

Expected goals
48.8%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.1%
39th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 44 against. Expected: 33.5 and 35.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
28th
Numbers
41st

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 99 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 703 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
BUF took 49.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.8% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 838 minutes at five-on-five — 43rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Victor Olofsson49.7%48.2%44.8%
Casey Mittelstadt53.9%46.0%47.9%
Rasmus Dahlin54.0%46.5%53.5%

49.7% together, 48.2% for him apart and 44.8% for Olofsson apart. Olofsson was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Olofsson than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

139 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 43% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.