Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

26

Andrew Mangiapane

Calgary Flames Left Wing

Thirty-five goals at 18.9 per cent, the 95th percentile, from a sixth-round pick playing 15:44 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CGY10000-3200070.08:56
2018-19CGY448513+11120016512.310:33
2019-20CGY68171532+41800210915.613:42
2020-21CGY56181432+1242149119.816:40
2021-22CGY82352055+203882818518.915:44
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—2607854132+33941031545717.114:16

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

35 goals and 20 assists in 82 games — 55 points at 15:44 a night, plus-20, with 38 penalty minutes.

59.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,044 minutes, the 97th percentile among forwards, and 59.1 per cent of the shot attempts, the 98th. His ice went 49-34 against an expectation of 52.15-35.69.

Thirty-five goals is a career high by seventeen, on 15:44 a night — the 51st percentile in ice time.

The Finesse Game

18.9 per cent shooting is the 95th percentile among forwards, on 185 shots from a median of 21 feet with 58 per cent from the slot. He scores from close, and the conversion rate is the whole of why 15 minutes a night produced 35 goals.

2.42 takeaways per 60 is the 93rd percentile among forwards. 2.37 even-strength points per 60 is the 79th and only 20 per cent of his points came on the power play — this is a five-on-five scorer.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 183, 3.40 hits and 1.49 blocks per 60, both around the 40th percentile. He is not physical and he is not avoiding contact either.

44.0 per cent of his even-strength time was in the offensive zone, the 93rd percentile among forwards. He was deployed to attack and he attacked.

22.5 mph is the 55th percentile and 10.03 miles per 60 is the 82nd. He works rather than flies, which for a 5-10 winger is the harder way to make a living.

The Intangibles

One hundred and sixty-sixth overall in 2015, sixth round, and 260 NHL games at 26 with 132 points.

With Blake Coleman on the ice Calgary took 65.8 per cent of the chances; Mangiapane without him was at 55.0 and Coleman without him at 49.7, across 800 attempts together. That is the clearest carrying relationship on the roster and it runs in his direction. The question the season asks is whether a 35-goal year at 18.9 per cent shooting repeats, and the honest answer is that it usually does not.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    59.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 53.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.6, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He scores from close, and the conversion rate is the whole of why 15 minutes a night produced 35 goals.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,044 minutes

Expected goals
59.4%
98th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
59.1%
99th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 34 against. Expected: 52.1 and 35.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
98th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
69th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.35 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.63 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.1 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1044 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 59.4% — 4.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,044 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mikael Backlund59.6%59.1%51.9%
Blake Coleman65.8%55.0%49.7%
Christopher Tanev55.6%61.1%54.3%

59.6% together, 59.1% for him apart and 51.9% for Backlund apart. Backlund was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Backlund than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

234 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 35 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.