Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

3

Seth Jones

Florida Panthers Defense

A 44.9 per cent chance share and a minus-24, and a Cup three months after arriving.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14NSH7761925-23242021006.019:37
2014-15NSH8281927+3202101236.519:53
2015-16NSH/CBJ8132831-14221001571.922:05
2016-17CBJ75123042+6241031527.923:24
2017-18CBJ78164157+10307042496.424:36
2018-19CBJ7593746+1280041844.925:49
2019-20CBJ5662430+10202001264.825:17
2020-21CBJ5652328-18262011413.525:14
2021-22CHI7854651-37280001942.626:13
2022-23CHI72122537-38302011786.724:27
2023-24CHI6782331-15343041724.725:29
2024-25CHI/FLA6392736-24225021297.024:38
2025-26 so far
Career86099342441-1393082712119055.223:46

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 27 assists in 63 games for 36 points, minus-24, on 24:38 a night between Chicago and Florida.

44.9 per cent at five-on-five, the 14th percentile — by far the worst figure among Florida’s defencemen, with on-ice goals of 37-40 against an expected 40-49. Most of the damage was accumulated in Chicago, on the worst possession club in the league, and the share did not fully recover after the trade.

The Finesse Game

The tools are still there. The skating is genuinely good for 6-4, the shot from the point is heavy, and 27 assists in 63 games is a real total — he moves the puck well when he is not under duress.

The decision-making under pressure is the recurring problem and it has been for a decade. He attempts the difficult play at the wrong moment, and a defenceman playing 25 minutes a night cannot afford it at the rate he does.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 213, and he is willing without being a shutdown presence. He takes contact, defends his net front adequately, and does not clear it decisively.

22 penalty minutes over 63 games is disciplined. The durability has been good.

The Intangibles

A 4th overall pick, three organisations, an enormous contract, years of being the most criticised defenceman in the league, and a Stanley Cup three months after Chicago paid to move him.

At 31 in this structure, the reasonable projection is considerably better than the 14th percentile — Florida reduces the number of decisions a defenceman has to make, which is precisely his problem. It is the most interesting reclamation in this edition.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,086 minutes

Expected goals
44.9%
14th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
31st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 40 against. Expected: 40.1 and 49.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
14th

The report ranks him 39 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with CHI · 777 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
FLA took 54.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.9% — 9.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,086 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor Bedard43.6%45.6%40.2%
Alec Martinez41.8%46.0%43.1%
Tyler Bertuzzi45.0%44.9%40.7%

43.6% together, 45.6% for him apart and 40.2% for Bedard apart. Bedard was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Bedard than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

188 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 36 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.