Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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23

Sean Monahan

Montreal Canadiens Center

The largest power-play share of points of all 393 qualified forwards — 57 per cent — and the 10th-lowest even-strength rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14CGY75221234-20830214015.715:59
2014-15CGY81313162+812101819116.219:37
2015-16CGY81273663-61870519713.719:10
2016-17CGY82273158-12081419913.617:35
2017-18CGY74313364+324901120215.318:41
2018-19CGY78344882+712120521116.119:03
2019-20CGY70222648-162580516613.318:06
2020-21CGY50101828-6104059810.217:41
2021-22CGY6581523-15245021117.214:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—656212250462-4615366247151514.017:52

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 15 assists in sixty-five games for Calgary at 14:04 a night, minus-15. Sixth overall in 2013, nine seasons, 656 games, 462 points, 212 career goals.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-seven per cent of his points came on the power play — the largest share of all 393 qualified forwards in the league. Thirteen of his twenty-three.

The other half of that is worse. 0.79 even-strength points per 60 is the 10th-lowest of the 393, from a centre who had scored at least twenty goals in seven of his previous eight seasons. 7.2 per cent shooting is the 13th percentile on 7.29 shots per 60 at the 49th — the volume held and nothing went in.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 65th percentile and 53.0 per cent of the attempts the 75th, which are Calgary’s minutes on a club that took 55.2 per cent of the chances. 56.8 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end — he was being sheltered and still could not score at even strength.

His ice went 21-32 against an expectation of 29.49-27.44: eight goals short going forward and five long against, which is a genuinely bad year in both directions.

2.10 takeaways per 60 is the 80th percentile.

The Physical Game

3.87 hits per 60 is the 50th percentile and 1.58 blocks the 44th. Twenty-four penalty minutes in sixty-five games. There is nothing here in either direction and never has been.

The Intangibles

10.28 miles per 60 is the 93rd percentile at 22.0 mph, the 22nd — he covers a great deal of ground and is not quick, and 85.8 mph is the 22nd percentile, a soft shot for a man whose job is scoring.

He is 28, arriving in Montreal off the worst season of his career. A 462-point centre whose entire remaining production is on the power play is a specific and risky thing to buy, and the club buying him finished 28th on the power play. Nothing in this record forecasts a recovery; nothing in it rules one out either, and the eight seasons before last are the case for patience.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 770 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 32 against. Expected: 29.5 and 27.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
11th
Numbers
69th

The numbers rank him 58 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 51 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 65 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
43rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.97 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.8 mph
44th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with CGY · 770 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 3.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 770 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Milan Lucic51.0%52.5%50.0%
Dillon Dube59.4%45.9%50.3%
Erik Gudbranson50.1%52.8%54.8%

51.0% together, 52.5% for him apart and 50.0% for Lucic apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

150 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.