Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

Ryan O'Reilly

Photo by Fanny Schertzer, CC BY 3.0

Ryan O'Reilly

Nashville Predators Center #90

64 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet — the highest share in this book.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10COL8181826+4180221355.916:46
2010-11COL74131326-71621011910.916:03
2011-12COL81183755-1124031899.519:32
2012-13COL2961420-34300669.118:30
2013-14COL80283664-1290620113.919:49
2014-15COL82173855-5122111719.919:43
2015-16BUF71213960-16881215713.421:44
2016-17BUF72203555-11081318910.621:28
2017-18BUF81243761-232150323010.420:49
2018-19STL82284977+221261523412.020:46
2019-20STL71124961+111021311810.220:34
2020-21STL56243054+261842412918.620:45
2021-22STL78213758+111290016812.519:05
2022-23STL/TOR53161430-211611410215.717:57
2023-24NSH82264369+618140118014.419:46
2024-25NSH79213253-232490315113.918:59
2025-26NSH81254974+82252815416.220:24
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—1233328570898-132161011348269312.219:37

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

25 goals and 49 assists in 81 games — 74 points, plus-8 on a club that was minus-20, at 20:24 a night. His 1,233rd career game.

The Finesse Game

The shot chart is the most extreme of any regular forward in this edition. 64 per cent of his unblocked attempts came from inside 20 feet, with a median of 13 and only 8 per cent from beyond 40.

Nobody covered here shoots from closer. He is 35, he has no speed, and he scored 25 goals by standing in the paint and being impossible to move off it.

49 assists is the larger half. He is still one of the best puck-protection centres in the league below the goal line, and the pass out of the corner is the reason Evangelista had 44 assists of his own.

The Physical Game

6-1, 207, and he wins pucks with body position and a stick that is always in the right place. 22 penalty minutes in 81 games of the hardest defensive assignment on the roster.

He takes every important faceoff and wins most of them.

The Intangibles

50.3 per cent of the expected goals, 57th percentile, on a club at 47.8. Plus-8 on a team that finished minus-20 — the best figure on the roster by a distance, in the hardest minutes.

A Conn Smythe, a Selke, a Stanley Cup, 898 points, and a career built entirely on doing the difficult half of the game well enough to be given the easy half as a reward.

8 points in his last 10. He is 35 and still the most useful player on this team.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    74.2% of his attempts in the slot, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 1,175 minutes

Expected goals
50.3%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.6%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 45 against. Expected: 52.5 and 52.0.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
92nd
Numbers
57th

The report ranks him 35 points above where the numbers do. It was written with these numbers on screen and departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 81 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
45th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.89 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.28 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.8 mph
50th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.6

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

8

points in his last 10 games — 1 goals, 7 assists, 20 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 1175 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
NSH took 47.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.3% — 2.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,175 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Luke Evangelista55.7%44.3%50.9%
Steven Stamkos51.5%48.7%47.7%
Filip Forsberg51.7%48.9%45.7%

55.7% together, 44.3% for him apart and 50.9% for Evangelista apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

236 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 28 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 64% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.