This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →
Dillon Dube
Calgary Flames Center
Eighteen goals at 12:50 a night, with bursts over 20 mph at the 95th percentile and miles skated at the 95th.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | CGY | 25 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.5 | 10:04 |
| 2019-20 | CGY | 45 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 60 | 10.0 | 12:41 |
| 2020-21 | CGY | 51 | 11 | 11 | 22 | -1 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 13.1 | 13:38 |
| 2021-22 | CGY | 79 | 18 | 14 | 32 | +1 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 12.6 | 12:50 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 200 | 36 | 39 | 75 | +2 | 50 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 309 | 11.7 | 12:39 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
18 goals and 14 assists in 79 games — 32 points at 12:50 a night, plus-1, with 20 penalty minutes.
53.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 905 minutes, the 75th percentile among forwards. His ice went 36-34 against an expectation of 39.83-34.83.
Eighteen goals is a career high by seven, on the 22nd percentile of ice time.
The Finesse Game
8.46 shots per 60 is the 68th percentile among forwards at 12.6 per cent, from a median of 26 feet with 49 per cent from the slot. 1.77 even-strength points per 60 is the 49th percentile and only 9 per cent of his points came on the power play.
Everything about the production says fourth-line minutes and third-line output, which at 24 is the useful direction for it to run.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 185. 13.3 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 95th percentile among forwards and 10.30 miles per 60 is the 95th, against a top speed of 22.9 mph at the 77th. He is a relentless skater rather than a fast one — the ground covered and the frequency of top gear are both near the top of the league, and the maximum is not.
5.15 hits per 60 is the 63rd percentile and 0.89 blocks is the 10th. He forechecks and he does not defend by lying down.
0.30 drawn minus taken per 60 is the 75th percentile. He is fouled more than he fouls, which for a small forward who goes hard is how it should read.
The Intangibles
Fifty-sixth overall in 2016, and 200 NHL games at 24 with 75 points.
With Sean Monahan on the ice he took 59.4 per cent of the chances and was at 50.3 without him, across 586 attempts. Monahan has gone to Montreal. Dube is the one forward on this roster whose next step would meaningfully change the top nine, and the club has just removed the centre he played best with.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
79 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He is a relentless skater rather than a fast one — the ground covered and the frequency of top gear are both near the top of the league, and the maximum is not.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 905 minutes
- Expected goals
- 53.3%
- 78th pct
- Shot attempts
- 55%
- 88th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 34 against. Expected: 39.8 and 34.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games
- Top speed
- 22.9 mph
- 85th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 2.85 a game
- Distance
- 2.20 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 89.1 mph
- 60th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 905 minutes at five-on-five
- Milan Lucic23%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.3% — 1.9 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 905 minutes at five-on-five — 50th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan | 59.4% | 50.3% | 45.9% |
| Erik Gudbranson | 49.1% | 55.4% | 55.3% |
| Rasmus Andersson | 56.9% | 51.4% | 56.9% |
59.4% together, 50.3% for him apart and 45.9% for Monahan apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
183 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.