Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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5

Nils Lundkvist

Dallas Stars Defense

Twenty-five games at 22, and 88 per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22NYR25134+40100323.113:56
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—25134+40100323.113:56

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 3 assists in 25 games for the Rangers at 13:56 a night, with a plus-4 and no penalty minutes at all.

Twenty-five games is well short of the 40 this book requires, so there is no peer group and the figures are raw. 41.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 334 minutes, which is a poor number and a small one. His ice went 13-8 against an expectation of 10.88-15.09 — five goals better against than the chances promised, on a team whose goaltender posted .9346.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-two shots in twenty-five games. The median travels 50 feet, 2 per cent came from inside twenty, and 88 per cent from beyond forty. A point shot and nothing else, which is what a rookie gets on the third pair.

89.5 mph, which is ordinary, with the standing caveat that a maximum is a season best and twenty-five games is a quarter of the chances to set one.

One power-play goal. Four points in twenty-five games is the shape of a young defenceman being kept simple, not of one being used.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 194. 21.9 mph and 2.03 miles a game, both low, both what fourteen minutes produces.

No penalty minutes in twenty-five games, which at 21 years old is either remarkable discipline or a man who never puts himself in a position to foul. The repo cannot tell those apart.

The Intangibles

Twenty-eighth overall in 2018, and twenty-five NHL games at 22 — the whole of the record this book has on him.

Forty-two per cent of the chances is the worst five-on-five share of any Star, and it came in a Rangers uniform on a club that finished seventh in the league — so the environment was good and the number was not.

A right-shot first-round defenceman who has not played a full season is the most common asset in hockey and the hardest to price. The honest reading is that twenty-five games tells you almost nothing, and this book would rather say so than build a paragraph on it.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 334 minutes

Expected goals
41.9%
7th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.2%
2nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 8 against. Expected: 10.9 and 15.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
7th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 25 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
66th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.64 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.03 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.5 mph
33rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with NYR · 334 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYR took 46.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.9% — 4.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
334 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Filip Chytil42.7%41.4%49.7%
Alexis Lafrenière44.5%40.4%48.2%
Artemi Panarin50.7%39.0%47.1%

42.7% together, 41.4% for him apart and 49.7% for Chytil apart. Chytil was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

41 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 2% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 88% from beyond forty.