Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

47

Mark Kastelic

Boston Bruins Center

6-4 and 234 pounds, 106 penalty minutes in 61 games, and a 45.1 per cent chance share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22OTT16224-1140011118.29:11
2022-23OTT657411-6102002739.68:54
2023-24OTT635510-563000608.37:43
2024-25BOS615914-3106000677.510:44
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—205192039-152850032119.09:06

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 9 assists in 61 games for 14 points, minus-3, on 10:44 a night.

43.9 per cent at five-on-five, the 11th percentile. His on-ice goals were 19-23 against an expected 18-23, which is a fourth line being rescued by its goaltending to the tune of 13 goals.

The Finesse Game

Limited, and honestly so. 67 shots and 5 goals, 40 per cent of them from inside 20 feet because that is the only place he is dangerous.

There is no playmaking and no puck game at speed. He is on a roster to be big and to win a draw, and 14 points is a fair description of the rest.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 234, and among the heaviest forwards in the league. He hits, he fights, and he wins pucks below the goal line by simply arriving.

106 penalty minutes in 61 games is the second-highest rate on the club. Some of that is the role; a considerable amount of it is a cost the penalty kill then has to absorb.

The Intangibles

A fifth-round pick who made himself into an NHL fourth-liner through size and work, and there is no question about the willingness.

The league is carrying fewer of these players every year. On a club that finished 27th in chance creation, 631 minutes of a forward who cannot make a play is a use of ice time that is getting harder to justify.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    20% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “There is no playmaking and no puck game at speed.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He is on a roster to be big and to win a draw”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He hits, he fights, and he wins pucks below the goal line by simply arriving.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He hits, he fights”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “he wins pucks below the goal line by simply arriving”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 631 minutes

Expected goals
43.9%
12th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.6%
7th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 23 against. Expected: 17.7 and 22.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
30th
Numbers
12th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 61 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
85th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
2.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.87 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.3 mph
53rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 631 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
BOS took 48.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.9% — 4.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 631 minutes at five-on-five — 23rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
John Beecher49.8%35.1%41.6%
Cole Koepke46.0%42.3%48.4%
Nikita Zadorov44.7%43.3%49.8%

49.8% together, 35.1% for him apart and 41.6% for Beecher apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

90 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.