Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Jonas Siegenthaler

New Jersey Devils Defense

Fourteen points in seventy games at 20:34, the 5th-percentile shooting and the 92nd-percentile penalties drawn.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19WSH26044+610000120.014:09
2019-20WSH64279+1143001494.115:44
2020-21WSH/NJD15000-9400070.015:37
2021-22NJD7011314-542000921.120:34
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—17532427+3990011601.917:25

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 13 assists in seventy games at 20:34 a night, minus-5, forty-two penalty minutes. Fifty-seventh overall in 2015, four seasons, 175 games, 27 points, at 25.

The Finesse Game

There is almost none. 0.61 even-strength points per 60 is the 15th percentile, 3.84 shots per 60 the 37th, and 1.1 per cent shooting the 5th. Ninety-two shots, one goal. Five per cent from the slot is the 7th percentile — he shoots from the point and rarely.

53.2 per cent of the expected goals is the 77th percentile — the best defence figure on the club — against 51.7 per cent of the attempts at the 69th, with 42.2 per cent of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, the hardest of any New Jersey defenceman.

His ice went 55-61 against an expectation of 52.80-46.48: fifteen goals against above the model, the largest gap of any New Jersey defenceman, on the club that rated 32nd in goaltending at minus-43.3.

Beside Jack Hughes across 486 attempts the pair took 55.8 per cent — Hughes read 50.7 without him.

The Physical Game

4.09 hits per 60 is the 50th percentile and 4.42 blocks the 59th at 6-2 and 218. Both entirely ordinary.

0.79 penalties drawn per 60 is the 92nd percentile among defencemen and his net is the 84th, from a man who does not hit at any notable rate. That combination — high penalties drawn without contact — usually means a defenceman who is being chased rather than one who is chasing.

The Intangibles

22.2 mph is the 64th percentile, 0.8 bursts over 20 mph per 60 the 22nd, and 8.30 miles per 60 the 33rd. Ordinary speed, low mobility.

He is 25 with 27 points in 175 games. The best chance share on a defence corps is worth something and the shooting record says exactly how narrow the player is. A shutdown defenceman with no offence and a good share is useful; on a club whose goaltending gave back fifteen goals off his ice alone, it is also invisible.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “0.79 penalties drawn per 60 is the 92nd percentile among defencemen and his net is the 84th, from a man who does not hit at any notable rate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,262 minutes

Expected goals
53.2%
77th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.7%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 55 for, 61 against. Expected: 52.8 and 46.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
77th

The numbers rank him 60 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 70 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
76th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.29 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.84 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.8 mph
42nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1262 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NJD took 51.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.2% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,262 minutes at five-on-five — 88th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Damon Severson54.9%51.4%49.7%
Dawson Mercer50.1%54.4%49.9%
Jesper Bratt63.4%49.1%54.2%

54.9% together, 51.4% for him apart and 49.7% for Severson apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

118 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 45 feet. 3% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 78% from beyond forty.