Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

40

Joel Armia

Montreal Canadiens Right Wing

The 4th-percentile even-strength scoring rate at 13:43 a night, on eleven career short-handed goals and the 88th-percentile penalty ledger.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15BUF1000000000—14:47
2015-16WPG434610+212001527.712:10
2016-17WPG5710919-8200411119.015:08
2017-18WPG79121729+3220121289.412:36
2018-19MTL571310230142121349.715:48
2019-20MTL58161430+22833215510.317:14
2020-21MTL417714+1010110739.614:42
2021-22MTL606814-15141101035.813:43
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3966871139-612071187569.014:27

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 8 assists in sixty games at 13:43 a night, minus-15, fourteen penalty minutes. Sixteenth overall in 2011, eight seasons, 396 games, 139 points. 6-3 and 215.

The Finesse Game

0.87 even-strength points per 60 is the 4th percentile of the 393 qualified forwards. That is the season and there is no way to dress it.

7.51 shots per 60 is the 54th percentile and 5.8 per cent is the 8th — the volume was normal and six went in. Forty-eight per cent from the slot at a 26-foot median: ordinary locations.

47.0 per cent of the expected goals is the 26th percentile. His ice went 19-31 against an expectation of 26.89-30.30 — eight goals short of what his shifts generated, which is the largest personal finishing shortfall on the club.

2.19 takeaways per 60 is the 84th percentile, against 2.04 giveaways at the 78th.

The Physical Game

7.58 hits per 60 is the 79th percentile and 2.19 takeaways per 60 the 84th, from a 6-3 winger playing under fourteen minutes.

1.02 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.51 taken is an 88th-percentile net, and fourteen penalty minutes in sixty games. He is large, he forechecks, and he does not put his club short-handed — which on this roster is worth saying out loud.

Eleven of his 68 career goals have come short-handed, which is a large share for a man with 396 games.

The Intangibles

22.3 mph is the 42nd percentile and 2.3 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 12th — he is not quick and he almost never sprints. 9.50 miles per 60 is the 36th.

He is 29 with a career high of 16 goals. The forechecking, the takeaways, the discipline and the short-handed record describe a genuinely useful fourth-line winger. The 4th-percentile scoring rate describes what happens when that player is asked for more, and Montreal asked.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “7.58 hits per 60 is the 79th percentile and 2.19 takeaways per 60 the 84th, from a 6-3 winger playing under fourteen minutes.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “Eleven of his 68 career goals have come short-handed, which is a large share for a man with 396 games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 697 minutes

Expected goals
47%
32nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.6%
42nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 31 against. Expected: 26.9 and 30.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
32nd

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 60 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
58th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.52 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.17 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.7 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 697 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MTL took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.0% — 0.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 697 minutes at five-on-five — 31st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexander Romanov47.0%47.0%46.3%
Artturi Lehkonen60.5%41.5%52.2%
Jeff Petry57.4%42.4%46.8%

47.0% together, 47.0% for him apart and 46.3% for Romanov apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

133 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.