Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

25

Ryan Poehling

Pittsburgh Penguins Center

The 91st-percentile sprint count and the 95th-percentile distance, on the 14th-percentile attempt share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19MTL1303+300003100.011:22
2019-20MTL27112-44000263.910:20
2021-22MTL579817-216201919.912:12
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—8513922-221020112010.811:36

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

57 games for Montreal, 9 goals and 8 assists at 12:12 a night, minus-21, six penalty minutes, 91 shots. Twenty-fifth overall in 2017 by Montreal, three seasons, 85 games, 22 points.

The Finesse Game

1.49 even-strength points per 60 is the 32nd percentile and two of his nine goals came on the power play off 1:22 a night at the 44th.

7.85 shots per 60 is the 60th percentile at 9.9 per cent, from a 23-foot median with fifty-four per cent from the slot. Nine goals from ninety-one shots at twelve minutes a night is a respectable first real season.

1.81 takeaways per 60 against 2.07 giveaways at the 79th — the giveaways are the soft column.

46.9 per cent of the expected goals is the 25th percentile and 45.6 per cent of the attempts the 14th, out of 47.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 250th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — slightly below level.

His ice went 17-32 against an expectation of 22.93-25.96. Six goals short in front and six more against than the model asked, on the club that finished 32nd in the league and 32nd in goaltending at minus-43.3. The minus-21 is mostly that.

The Physical Game

3.45 hits per 60 is the 44th percentile and 2.42 blocks the 81st at 6-2 and 206 pounds.

0.26 penalties taken per 60 is the 6th percentile and the net at the 82nd, with six penalty minutes in fifty-seven games — fewer than any man in this chapter who played fifty.

The Intangibles

11.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 91st percentile among forwards and 10.31 miles per 60 is the 95th, at 6-2 and 206 pounds.

Against a 22.8 mph top speed at only the 73rd. He sprints constantly without ever being among the fastest — which is a shift-length reading as much as a skating one, at twelve minutes a night.

He is 23, a first-round pick, and last season is the only one of his three with more than eight games in it. The skating and the discipline are the two things the record establishes. The possession shares and the eighty-five career games mean everything else is still an open question, and he arrives on a club with two centres in their late thirties ahead of him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.11 penalty minutes a game over 57, 3rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “11.1 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 91st percentile among forwards and 10.31 miles per 60 is the 95th, at 6-2 and 206 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 606 minutes

Expected goals
46.9%
31st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.6%
18th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 32 against. Expected: 22.9 and 26.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
31st

The report ranks him 22 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 57 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
82nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.26 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.09 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.7 mph
48th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with MTL · 606 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MTL took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.9% — 0.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
606 minutes at five-on-five — 26th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexander Romanov49.6%45.8%46.0%
Jeff Petry53.1%44.2%47.8%
Joel Armia39.9%49.4%49.1%

49.6% together, 45.8% for him apart and 46.0% for Romanov apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

112 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.