Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

33

Viktor Arvidsson

Los Angeles Kings Left Wing

The 8th-most shots per 60 of 393 forwards and 58.3 per cent of the expected goals — the best on-ice share on the club, at 8.8 per cent shooting.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15NSH60000000090.010:15
2015-16NSH568816-8351031395.812:24
2016-17NSH80313061+162845624612.617:09
2017-18NSH78293261+203633624711.717:45
2018-19NSH58341448+122632719517.419:09
2019-20NSH57151328-42640112711.816:12
2020-21NSH50101525+9212021516.616:36
2021-22LAK66202949+1224032278.816:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—451147141288+46194211028134111.016:37

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Twenty goals and 29 assists in sixty-six games in his first year out of Nashville, where he had scored 31, 29 and 34 in three of the previous five seasons. He missed sixteen games. Plus-1, at 16:59 a night.

The Finesse Game

He shoots, and that is the report. 12.15 shots per 60 is the 8th-highest of the 393 qualified forwards in the league — Alex Ovechkin is one of the seven ahead of him.

8.8 per cent is the 27th percentile, and that gap is the whole player: enormous volume, ordinary finish. The shots are not bad ones — 45 per cent from the slot at a 27-foot median — so this is a percentage story rather than a selection story, and percentages move.

2.60 even-strength points per 60 is the 85th percentile. Sixteen per cent of his points came on the power play.

58.3 per cent of the expected goals is the 95th percentile and 56.4 per cent of the attempts the 90th — both the best on the club. His ice went 46-42 against an expectation of 51.21-36.58: his goaltending cost him six against the model and his shooters cost him five going the other way.

Doughty made him better than anyone did — 65.3 per cent together against 55.6 apart. Tobias Bjornfot did the reverse: 47.6 together, 61.6 apart, a fourteen-point swing over 465 attempts.

The Physical Game

1.23 hits per 60 is the 9th percentile of forwards. He is 5-10 and 181 pounds and does not pretend otherwise.

0.86 giveaways per 60 is the 9th percentile of forwards and 2.41 blocks is the 81st, from a winger who played one second a night short-handed. The entire defensive record above is even-strength work, which is the unusual part — most wingers who read this well are getting the kill minutes that produce the events.

0.86 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.59 taken, both ordinary.

The Intangibles

22.9 mph is the 76th percentile, 5.8 bursts per 60 the 58th, and 9.31 miles per 60 the 22nd. He is quick in short bursts and covers less ground than most — a winger who works a narrow lane and gets to pucks inside it.

He is 29 and has now had three interrupted seasons in a row. The shot volume is the thing to price: a man generating twelve shots per 60 scores twenty-five in any year the percentage is merely average, and he has not had one of those since 2018-19.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 20 goals late or in overtime, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    58.3% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 50.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.4, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “0.86 giveaways per 60 is the 9th percentile of forwards and 2.41 blocks is the 81st, from a winger who played one second a night short-handed.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 908 minutes

Expected goals
58.3%
97th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.4%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 42 against. Expected: 51.2 and 36.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
97th

The numbers rank him 39 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.65 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.63 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.6 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 908 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.3% — 5.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 908 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Phillip Danault59.6%55.2%51.8%
Trevor Moore58.8%57.5%51.6%
Matt Roy58.8%58.1%51.1%

59.6% together, 55.2% for him apart and 51.8% for Danault apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

316 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.