Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

26

Jimmy Vesey

New York Rangers Left Wing

A career minus-50, a plus-13 last season, and ten per cent from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYR80161127-132650611613.813:38
2017-18NYR79171128-182010413612.514:20
2018-19NYR81171835-62110415411.016:03
2019-20BUF6491120+1215012939.713:48
2020-21TOR/VAN505510-1410001588.612:43
2021-22NJD688715-24120221107.314:25
2022-23NYR81111425+13200141238.913:37
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—5038377160-50124742379010.514:10

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

11 goals and 14 assists in 81 games — 25 points — at 13:37 a night. Plus-13, 123 shots at 8.9 per cent, one shorthanded goal, four game-winners, 20 penalty minutes.

53.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 78th percentile, with his ice at 41-34 against an expectation of 44.23-38.46 across 974 minutes.

He started 51.4 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 54th percentile.

Seven seasons, 503 games, 160 points, and a career minus-50 against a plus-13 in this one.

The Finesse Game

123 shots at a median of 21 feet, 47 per cent of them from inside twenty, and eleven goals.

Inside twenty feet: 59 shots on goal and 6 goals — 10.17 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 45 shots and 3 goals. Beyond forty: 16 shots and 2 goals.

That is a poor finisher from close on a large number of chances, and it is the reason a man who gets to the right places has scored 83 goals in 503 games.

100 wrist shots out of 162 tracked attempts and four slap. 90.8 mph at the 49th percentile.

77 career assists against 83 goals. There is no second skill to fall back on and the file has never claimed one.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 203, with twenty penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.9 mph, the 33rd percentile; 1.1 bursts a game, the 57th; 2.21 miles a game, the 25th.

Below the league in speed and mileage, at thirty, in thirteen minutes a night.

He goes to the net, kills penalties, and forechecks straight ahead. None of it is remarkable and all of it is done every night.

What the 78th-percentile chance share says is that the shifts do not go backwards, which for a fourth-line winger on a minimum contract is the whole of the job description.

The Intangibles

Sixty-sixth overall in 2012 to Nashville, who never signed him; then three seasons here, then Buffalo, Toronto, Vancouver and New Jersey, and back to the Rangers on a tryout.

The career line is 83 goals, 77 assists and a minus-50 across 503 games and five organisations.

He is thirty. The plus-13 and the 78th-percentile chance share are the best underlying season of his career and they came in the smallest role he has had, which is the most likely explanation for both.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    53.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 47.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.6, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He goes to the net, kills penalties, and forechecks straight ahead.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “That is a poor finisher from close on a large number of chances, and it is the reason a man who gets to the right places has scored 83 goals in 503 games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 974 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.2%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 34 against. Expected: 44.2 and 38.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
78th

The numbers rank him 54 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 81 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
42nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.06 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.21 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.8 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 974 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NYR took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — 4.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 974 minutes at five-on-five — 56th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Barclay Goodrow50.7%55.3%44.0%
Adam Fox60.8%48.4%53.6%
K'Andre Miller56.4%52.1%47.7%

50.7% together, 55.3% for him apart and 44.0% for Goodrow apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Goodrow behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

158 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.