Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

23

Carter Verhaeghe

Florida Panthers Center

Thirteen points at twenty-four, forty-two goals at twenty-seven, and a third-round pick Toronto never played.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20TBL529413-981015715.89:22
2020-21FLA43181836+243111310716.817:44
2021-22FLA78243155+244800416714.416:03
2022-23FLA81423173+104670227515.317:30
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—2549384177+49133911060615.315:26

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

42 goals and 31 assists in 81 games — 73 points. Plus-10, 17:30 a night, 275 shots at 15.3 per cent.

Forty-two goals tied him for ninth in the league, level with Ovechkin.

55.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 89th percentile, with his ice at 68-42 against an expectation of 65.86-52.78 — the chances were real and the goals against were ten better than the chances deserved.

The career line is the thing. Thirteen points in Tampa at twenty-four. Then 36, 55 and 73 in Florida, and 18, 24 and 42 goals. Nobody’s development curve is supposed to bend that late.

Four seasons, 254 games, 177 points.

The Finesse Game

275 shots at a median of 26 feet, 38 per cent from inside twenty and 16 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty feet: 45 shots on goal and 5 goals, 11.11 per cent — against a league rate for forwards of 4.16. Inside forty: 226 shots, 36 goals, 15.93 per cent.

Forty-five shots is a small enough number that one hot week moves the rate, and this book will not turn it into a finding. What it does say is that he converted well from everywhere, which is what a 15.3 per cent season on 275 shots looks like from the inside.

89.3 mph at the 40th percentile, on fourteen slap shots. The shot that produces the goals is a wrister from the top of the circle taken in stride.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 183, and 46 penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.6 mph, the 67th percentile; bursts 2.6 a game, the 93rd; 2.89 miles a game, the 74th. He is one of the few Panthers who registers as quick rather than merely busy, and the bursts figure is the second-highest on the club among regulars.

He is not a heavy player and does not pretend to be. The way he gets to his shot is by arriving late into space rather than by winning a wall, and at 183 pounds that is the correct choice.

The Intangibles

Eighty-second overall in 2013, taken by Toronto, who never played him a game. He reached the league at twenty-four in Tampa, played fifty-two games there and was let go.

The useful thing that can be said about the finishing is that it has held up across three straight seasons and 549 shots, which is long enough to stop calling it a hot run and not quite long enough to call it a rate.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The way he gets to his shot is by arriving late into space rather than by winning a wall, and at 183 pounds that is the correct choice.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,171 minutes

Expected goals
55.5%
89th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.4%
94th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 68 for, 42 against. Expected: 65.9 and 52.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
78th
Numbers
89th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 81 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.56 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.89 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.3 mph
63rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1171 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
FLA took 53.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.5% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,171 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matthew Tkachuk59.8%48.5%61.6%
Gustav Forsling51.4%58.9%51.7%
Brandon Montour53.1%57.3%51.8%

59.8% together, 48.5% for him apart and 61.6% for Tkachuk apart. He was worse away from Tkachuk, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Tkachuk did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

349 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 41 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.