Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

21

Jason Robertson

Dallas Stars Left Wing

35 goals and a 16.6 per cent shooting rate, and the only forward here whose on-ice goal differential was better than his chance share earned.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20DAL30110000040.012:19
2020-21DAL51172845+131610312713.416:53
2021-22DAL74413879+16221301122018.618:07
2022-23DAL824663109+3720130731314.718:50
2023-24DAL82295180+192290423112.618:19
2024-25DAL82354580+101890621116.617:48
2025-26 so far
Career374168226394+959845031110615.218:02

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

35 goals and 45 assists in 82 games for 80 points, plus-10, on 17:48 a night and 211 shots.

53.6 per cent at five-on-five, the 83rd percentile. His on-ice goals were 56-33 against an expected 52-45, so the line outscored what it created by a wide margin — a good sign about the finishing and a warning about the repeatability.

The Finesse Game

The best release in the organisation and the reason he has scored 30 or more four years running. It is quick off the pass and he changes the angle on it late, which is what beats goaltenders who have already read the play.

The playmaking is genuinely good and undersold. 45 assists is not a byproduct of standing next to good players — he holds pucks on the half-wall and makes the seam pass that a shooter is not expected to make. 37 per cent of his shots come from inside 20 feet, so he is not a perimeter volume shooter either.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 204, and the size does not show up as force. He is honest on the wall and will take a hit to make a play, but he does not win pucks by force and does not forecheck heavily.

The skating is the standing criticism and it is fair: he is not slow, but he is a stride behind the fastest wingers in the league and it shows on the backcheck. 18 penalty minutes is a player who is rarely in trouble.

The Intangibles

Four consecutive 30-goal seasons before turning 26, on a club where he has never been the loudest name. He has scored through three different centres and two different systems.

The question that follows him is April. His playoff production has been thinner than his regular seasons in each of the last three, and for a club whose entire construction is aimed at a deep run that is the specific thing it needs from him.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,086 minutes

Expected goals
53.6%
83rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.4%
58th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 33 against. Expected: 52.1 and 45.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
83rd

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1086 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
DAL took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.6% — 2.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,086 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Roope Hintz53.7%53.5%43.2%
Esa Lindell51.8%54.9%48.3%
Wyatt Johnston54.9%52.8%48.7%

53.7% together, 53.5% for him apart and 43.2% for Hintz apart. Hintz was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Hintz than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

290 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 37 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.