Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

13

Jake Leschyshyn

New York Rangers Center

No points in thirty-five games, and three goals for on his ice across 313 five-on-five minutes.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22VGK41246-28000355.711:18
2022-23VGK/NYR35000-108000310.09:08
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—76246-1216000663.010:18

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

No goals and no assists in 35 games, split between Vegas and the Rangers, at 9:08 a night. Minus-10, 31 shots, eight penalty minutes.

38.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 2nd percentile of this book, and his ice finished 3-14 against an expectation of 8.54-13.74 across 313 minutes.

Three goals for in 313 minutes is the number to sit with. It is a small sample and it is five and a half goals below what the chances deserved, which does not make it good.

He started 50.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 47th percentile — neutral deployment, and a chance share in the bottom fiftieth of the league out of it.

Two seasons, 76 games, 6 points.

The Finesse Game

31 shots at a median of 18 feet, 58 per cent of them from inside twenty, and no goals.

Inside twenty: 18 shots on goal and none. From twenty to forty: 11 and none.

Eighteen shots on goal from inside twenty feet without one going in is unlucky rather than damning — the league scores on about one in six of those — but two goals in 76 career games is the wider record and it says the same thing more slowly.

17 wrist shots out of 36 tracked attempts. There is not enough here to read.

Four career assists. The passing has never been the argument either.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 196, with eight penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.8 mph, the 77th percentile; 2.2 bursts a game, the 89th; and 1.54 miles a game, the 1st percentile.

That combination — near the top of the league in sprints and at the very bottom in ground covered — is nine minutes a night and nothing else. It is the same signature this book found in Julien Gauthier, and it means the shifts are short and hard.

He forechecks at speed and finishes checks, which is the whole of what a fourth-line centre at this ice time is being asked for.

What is missing is everything after the forecheck.

The Intangibles

Sixty-second overall in 2017 to Vegas, the second round, and 76 games across two seasons.

Six points in those 76 games, and none at all in thirty-five last season.

He is twenty-four. The skating is real and the rest of the file is empty, and a forward who has played most of two seasons without scoring is competing for a job that the American league usually wins.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks at speed and finishes checks, which is the whole of what a fourth-line centre at this ice time is being asked for.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Four career assists. The passing has never been the argument either.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 313 minutes

Expected goals
38.3%
2nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41%
3rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 3 for, 14 against. Expected: 8.5 and 13.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
4th
Numbers
2nd

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 51 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 35 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
82nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.54 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.2 mph
88th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with VGK · 207 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NYR took 49.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 38.3% — 10.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
313 minutes at five-on-five — 7th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
William Carrier39.9%37.7%56.8%
Nicolas Hague40.5%37.7%49.7%
Brayden McNabb53.5%33.4%52.3%

39.9% together, 37.7% for him apart and 56.8% for Carrier apart. Carrier was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

36 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 0 of them goals. 58% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.