This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Jaden Schwartz

Twenty-one goals and a minus-17, on a club that outscored its chances by forty.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2011-12	STL	7	2	1	3	+1	0	1	0	1	6	33.3	11:41
2012-13	STL	45	7	6	13	-4	4	0	0	1	50	14.0	12:28
2013-14	STL	80	25	31	56	+28	27	5	3	1	188	13.3	17:32
2014-15	STL	75	28	35	63	+13	16	8	0	4	184	15.2	18:15
2015-16	STL	33	8	14	22	+8	8	1	0	1	63	12.7	17:12
2016-17	STL	78	19	36	55	+14	18	3	0	4	179	10.6	18:54
2017-18	STL	62	24	35	59	+15	26	6	1	3	157	15.3	19:24
2018-19	STL	69	11	25	36	-6	16	2	0	1	183	6.0	18:08
2019-20	STL	71	22	35	57	+3	18	9	0	4	162	13.6	18:11
2020-21	STL	40	8	13	21	+2	20	1	0	1	71	11.3	17:42
2021-22	SEA	37	8	15	23	-13	14	1	0	0	101	7.9	18:27
2022-23	SEA	71	21	19	40	-17	22	6	0	2	167	12.6	17:25
2023-24 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	668	183	265	448	+44	189	43	4	23	1511	12.1	17:42

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 19 assists in 71 games — 40 points — at 17:25 a night. Minus-17, 167 shots at 12.6 per cent, six on the power play, two game-winners, 22 penalty minutes.

53.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,020 minutes, the 73rd percentile — a good share — and his ice finished 35-48 against an expectation of 41.13-36.07. Six goals short at the good end and twelve over at the other.

On a club whose five-on-five goal record ran forty goals ahead of its chances, this is the one forward whose ice ran the other way at both ends. It is worth a paragraph rather than a shrug: nothing in the chance record explains a minus-17 here, and a 73rd-percentile share with that goal differential is the clearest single case of bad luck in the chapter.

He started 52.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 60th percentile.

The Finesse Game

167 shots at a median of 21 feet, with 48 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty.

Inside twenty feet: 82 shots on goal and 12 goals — 14.63 per cent, below the league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 52 shots and four goals, 7.69 against a league rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 29 shots and two goals, 6.90, above the league rate of 4.16.

Below the rate from the two places most of his shots come from, and eighty-two shots on goal from inside twenty feet is the highest volume on this roster. The 21 goals came from getting there very often rather than from finishing well.

221 tracked attempts: 90 wrist, 35 slap, 32 tip-in, 29 snap, 24 backhand. A 40.7 per cent wrist-shot share is well under the median forward’s 51.9, and the rest of it is spread across five other kinds — the profile of a forward who shoots from wherever the puck reaches him.

96.3 mph at the 85th percentile. The shot is genuinely hard and the career 12.1 per cent shooting percentage says it has never been a difference-maker.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 185 pounds, with 22 penalty minutes in 71 games and 189 in 668 career games.

Top speed 22.4 mph at the 54th percentile, 0.7 bursts above twenty a game at the 34th, 2.78 miles a game at the 66th. A modest tracking line for a forward who plays seventeen minutes.

He wins the wall and goes to the net, which is where 82 shots on goal from inside twenty feet come from at 5-10 and 185 pounds, and it is also the reason he has played fewer than seventy games in seven of his twelve seasons.

The durability is the standing risk. He has played seventy-one or more games in five of twelve seasons.

The Intangibles

Fourteenth overall in 2010, twelve seasons, 668 games, 448 points across St. Louis and Seattle.

183 goals, and five seasons between 55 and 63 points, all of them in St. Louis. He has never scored thirty.

He is thirty-one, and the file describes exactly what a club is buying: seventeen minutes of a hard, honest, slightly under-finishing scoring winger who will miss ten games.

A plus-44 for a career against last season’s minus-17 is the most useful comparison in the file, and it points the same way as the chance share does.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“He wins the wall and goes to the net, which is where 82 shots on goal from inside twenty feet come from at 5-10 and 185 pounds, and it is also the reason he has played fewer than seventy games in seven of his twelve seasons.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,020 minutes

Expected goals: 53.3%; 77th pct
Shot attempts: 54.4%; 87th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 48 against. Expected: 41.1 and 36.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

88th

Numbers

77th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 71 games

Top speed: 22.4 mph; 60th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.66 a game
Distance: 2.78 miles a game
Hardest shot: 96.3 mph; 96th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1020 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club: SEA took 52.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.3% — 1.0 above the club he did it on.
The role: Second line, 1,020 minutes at five-on-five — 60th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Alex Wennberg	53.3%	53.3%	46.4%
Vince Dunn	55.8%	51.4%	54.5%
Adam Larsson	54.7%	52.3%	53.7%

53.3% together, 53.3% for him apart and 46.4% for Wennberg apart. Wennberg was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Wennberg than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

216 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 18 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.