Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

20

Brandon Saad

Vegas Golden Knights Left Wing

Two Stanley Cups, 935 games, and 30 points across two clubs at 32.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12CHI20000000030.014:01
2012-13CHI46101727+17120129810.216:28
2013-14CHI78192847+202030215911.916:17
2014-15CHI82232952+71220620311.317:15
2015-16CBJ78312253+11460723313.317:13
2016-17CBJ82242953+23810421011.417:02
2017-18CHI82181735-10141082377.617:30
2018-19CHI80232447-91253319511.817:41
2019-20CHI58211233+21612514015.016:45
2020-21COL4415924+1122016822.114:06
2021-22STL78242549+111081115815.216:16
2022-23STL71191837-81222112715.016:39
2023-24STL82261642-42050714418.115:30
2024-25STL/VGK72131730-8600112710.214:49
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—935266263529+4316836948210212.716:31

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

13 goals and 17 assists in 72 games across St. Louis and Vegas — 30 points at 14:49 a night, minus-8, on 127 shots and 6 penalty minutes.

52.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 87th percentile. His ice went 39-43 against an expectation of 38.37-34.29 — four goals of scoring missing and two fewer conceded.

The Finesse Game

127 attempts at a median of 21 feet with 48 per cent from inside 20, converting at 10.2 per cent. He goes to the paint and the finishing has fallen away — he scored 26 goals in 2021-22 and has scored 13 in each of the last two seasons.

17 assists in 72 games. He was never a creator; the value has always been the straight-line speed and the willingness to use it into the hard areas.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 207 and he plays honestly. He forechecks properly and he wins some pucks below the goal line, and he does not initiate much contact.

6 penalty minutes in 72 games is among the lowest totals of any regular in this edition. He does not foul and he does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2011 and 935 games and 529 points across five organisations, with two Stanley Cups in Chicago before he was 23.

He is 33. He was bought out in St. Louis and claimed by Vegas in November, which for a player with this record is an unusual way to arrive.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.08 penalty minutes a game over 72, 2nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He goes to the paint and the finishing has fallen away — he scored 26 goals in 2021-22 and has scored 13 in each of the last two seasons.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelypresent and ordinary· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks properly and he wins some pucks below the goal line, and he does not initiate much contact.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “**6 penalty minutes in 72 games** is among the lowest totals of any regular in this edition. He does not foul and he does not retaliate.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not foul and he does not retaliate.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 914 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
76th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51%
64th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 43 against. Expected: 38.4 and 34.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
76th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 72 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
49th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
1.71 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.38 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
79.5 mph
18th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 with STL · 554 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
VGK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
914 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Parayko47.1%54.7%51.9%
Ryan Suter49.6%54.0%47.8%
Pavel Dorofeyev60.3%50.2%56.6%

47.1% together, 54.7% for him apart and 51.9% for Parayko apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

172 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.