Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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19

Connor Dewar

Minnesota Wild Center

Thirty-five games at 9:54, a 5-10 third-round centre, and 55.1 per cent of the chances in the smallest role on the club.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MIN35246-425001444.59:54
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—35246-425001444.59:54

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 4 assists in thirty-five games at 9:54 a night, minus-4, twenty-five penalty minutes. Ninety-second overall in 2018, and this was his first NHL time, at 23. 5-10 and 187 pounds.

Three hundred and thirty-two five-on-five minutes is below every qualifying line, so this is the raw record.

The Finesse Game

His ice took 55.1 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals, which is a good figure and comes from 332 minutes — treat it as a hint rather than a finding. His ice went 10-12 against an expectation of 11.21-9.13, one of the few Minnesota shifts that did not finish above the model.

Forty-four shots, two goals, 4.5 per cent, from a 31-foot median with 31 per cent inside twenty feet. There is no scoring evidence here in either direction.

The pair file gives a little: 58.2 per cent across 228 attempts with Nico Sturm, who has since left, and 54.6 across 245 with Brandon Duhaime.

The Physical Game

Twenty-five penalty minutes in thirty-five games at 9:54 a night is a high rate for the ice time. He is 5-10 and 187 and the counting stats across 332 minutes do not support a rate claim in either direction.

42.3 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end — he was not sheltered into the good share above.

The Intangibles

23.0 mph is the 86th percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty games, and 1.6 sprints a game is the 75th. He is quick, in a small role.

1.66 miles a game is the 2nd percentile, which is almost entirely a statement about playing under ten minutes rather than about how hard he works — the same trap Brandon Duhaime’s line sets on this roster.

Thirty-five games at 23 from a third-round pick. Nothing here is evidence yet, and the one number that leans favourable — a 55.1 per cent chance share in unsheltered fourth-line minutes — is the one worth watching next season.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 332 minutes

Expected goals
55.1%
86th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.4%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 12 against. Expected: 11.2 and 9.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
22nd
Numbers
86th

The numbers rank him 64 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 54 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 35 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
88th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.63 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.66 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.9 mph
49th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 332 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MIN took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.1% — 1.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
332 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Duhaime54.6%55.4%47.0%
Nico Sturm58.2%53.0%47.9%
Dmitry Kulikov52.7%56.7%53.5%

54.6% together, 55.4% for him apart and 47.0% for Duhaime apart. Duhaime was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Duhaime than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

58 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 57 feet. 31% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.