Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

11

Anthony Duclair

New York Islanders Left Wing

Twenty-four goals at 18.6 per cent against a career 13.84, which is the whole question.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15NYR18167+44000185.612:09
2015-16ARI81202444+124980210519.114:23
2016-17ARI5851015-714001766.613:18
2017-18ARI/CHI56111223-5163029711.313:17
2018-19CBJ/OTT74191433-21470313214.412:42
2019-20OTT66231740-51852218412.516:16
2020-21FLA43102232+27181011049.615:41
2021-22FLA74312758+193090516718.615:00
2022-23FLA20279+42000434.714:51
2023-24SJS/TBL73241842-83450112918.615:46
2024-25 so far
Career563146157303+3919938217105513.814:28

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

73 games in San Jose and Tampa Bay, 24 goals and 18 assists for 42 points, 5 on the power play, 34 penalty minutes, 15:46 a night and minus-8. He took 44.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 990 minutes, the 20th percentile, and his ice went 46-45 against an expectation of 39.63-48.94.

Six goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and four fewer conceded than they called for. A 20th-percentile chance share is what half a season in San Jose does to a number.

The Finesse Game

129 shots at a median of 21 feet with 49 per cent from inside 20, converted at 18.6 per cent against a career 13.84.

157 career assists in 563 games. Twenty-four goals on a hundred and twenty-nine shots is six above his own career rate, and his career rate is already high. He is very fast and he shoots on the rush; there is no cycle game and very little passing.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 198 and avoids contact.

199 career penalty minutes in 563 games is a low rate. He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and the defensive half of his game has kept him moving between clubs for a decade.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick in 2013 out of Pointe-Claire, ten seasons across eight organisations, and 303 points in 563 games.

He is 29 and on his ninth club. New York has bought twenty-four goals from a man who has scored twenty or more four times in ten seasons, and the shooting percentage says be careful about which number arrives.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 990 minutes

Expected goals
44.7%
20th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.5%
10th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 45 against. Expected: 39.6 and 48.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
20th

The report ranks him 33 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with SJS · 765 minutes at five-on-five

  • Mikael Granlund54%
  • Fabian Zetterlund50%
  • Tomas Hertlnow VGK24%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
TBL took 50.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.7% — 5.8 below the club he did it on.
The role
990 minutes at five-on-five — 56th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mikael Granlund43.8%45.4%39.1%
Fabian Zetterlund44.6%44.8%40.3%
Mario Ferraro43.2%45.3%43.4%

43.8% together, 45.4% for him apart and 39.1% for Granlund apart. Granlund was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Granlund than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

177 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.