Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

11

Anthony Duclair

New York Islanders Left Wing

7 goals in 44 games in the first year of a four-year contract, at 15:03 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15NYR18167+44000185.612:09
2015-16ARI81202444+124980210519.114:23
2016-17ARI5851015-714001766.613:18
2017-18ARI/CHI56111223-5163029711.313:17
2018-19CBJ/OTT74191433-21470313214.412:42
2019-20OTT66231740-51852218412.516:16
2020-21FLA43102232+27181011049.615:41
2021-22FLA74312758+193090516718.615:00
2022-23FLA20279+42000434.714:51
2023-24SJS/TBL73241842-83450112918.615:46
2024-25NYI447411-15103006011.715:03
2025-26 so far
Career607153161314+2420941217111513.714:31

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

44 games, 7 goals and 4 assists for 11 points at 15:03 a night, on 60 shots at 11.67 per cent. 10 penalty minutes. Minus-15.

A 49 per cent chance share with on-ice goals of 17-21 against an expected 23.9-24.87 — seven goals short at one end and four fewer than expected at the other. This was the first season of a four-year contract signed in July 2024, and eleven points is not a return on any part of it.

The Finesse Game

The skating is the asset and it remains genuinely elite — he is among the faster wingers in the league in a straight line and he beats defencemen wide from a standing start.

40 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet at a median of 26 and 11.67 per cent on 60 attempts is fine. The problem is volume: 60 shots in 44 games from a player whose entire value is getting to dangerous ice with speed is a man not getting there.

The Physical Game

198 pounds and he avoids contact rather than absorbing it. He does not win a wall battle and he does not go to the net front, and 10 penalty minutes in 44 games reflects a winger who is rarely in the exchanges where penalties happen.

Everything depends on having space, and a playoff series does not provide any.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick, eight organisations, a 31-goal season, and a reputation for arriving somewhere new and scoring for one year.

He is 30 with three years left on the deal. The speed is the one thing that has never gone, and it is also the one attribute that historically disappears first.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 575 minutes

Expected goals
49%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.4%
45th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 21 against. Expected: 23.9 and 24.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
5th
Numbers
41st

The numbers rank him 36 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 575 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
NYI took 49.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 0.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
575 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Bo Horvat50.8%46.9%50.2%
Alexander Romanov46.6%50.7%50.5%
Kyle Palmieri45.0%51.0%49.6%

50.8% together, 46.9% for him apart and 50.2% for Horvat apart. He was worse away from Horvat, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Horvat did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

85 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.