Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

10

Alexander Holtz

Vegas Golden Knights Right Wing

Twelve points in 53 games, four years after being taken seventh overall.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22NJD9022-52000120.012:16
2022-23NJD19314-682002114.310:16
2023-24NJD82161228-151410312213.111:38
2024-25VGK534812-310100695.811:35
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—163232346-293440322410.311:30

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 8 assists in 53 games — 12 points at 11:35 a night, minus-3, with a power-play goal and 10 penalty minutes on 69 shots.

49.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 58th percentile, across 564 minutes. His ice went 17-20 against an expectation of 22.13-22.21, which is a fourth line that came out ahead on a small sample.

The Finesse Game

The shot is the reason he was a top-ten pick and it is genuinely excellent — the release is quick and heavy and it is NHL-quality without qualification.

69 attempts in 53 games and 4 goals at 5.8 per cent. He does not get to shoot, because everything around the shot — the pace, the puck retrieval, the defensive detail — has not developed, and a winger who cannot get himself the puck cannot use a shot.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 198 and he does not play a physical game. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win pucks on the wall, and he is not used against a first line.

10 penalty minutes in 53 games. He is uninvolved in that half of the game entirely, which at this level is the whole problem.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2020 by New Jersey and traded here in 2024 — 163 games and 46 points across two organisations.

He is 23. This is close to the last season in which a top-ten pedigree and a genuine NHL shot buy a roster spot on a club with these ambitions.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck with force, he does not win pucks on the wall, and he is not used against a first line.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not forecheck with force, he does not win pucks on the wall, and he is not used against a first line.”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He does not get to shoot, because everything around the shot — the pace, the puck retrieval, the defensive detail — has not developed, and a winger who cannot get himself the puck cannot use a shot.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 564 minutes

Expected goals
49.9%
52nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.2%
27th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 20 against. Expected: 22.1 and 22.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
11th
Numbers
52nd

The numbers rank him 41 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 53 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
59th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
0.79 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.93 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.0 mph
52nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 564 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
VGK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.9% — 3.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
564 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Noah Hanifin53.1%47.2%56.1%
Tanner Pearson49.5%50.2%48.5%
Alex Pietrangelo54.2%47.1%53.3%

53.1% together, 47.2% for him apart and 56.1% for Hanifin apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Hanifin and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

111 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.