Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

9

Alex Iafallo

Los Angeles Kings Left Wing

The 6th-fewest giveaways and the 9th-fewest penalties taken of 393 forwards, at 18:30 a night on both special teams.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18LAK7591625+10120011297.015:06
2018-19LAK82151833-172220214810.116:50
2019-20LAK70172643+11460314212.018:56
2020-21LAK55131730-8440211811.019:53
2021-22LAK79172037+483122157.918:30
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3617197168-1060151107529.417:43

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

17 goals and 20 assists in seventy-nine games, at 18:30 a night — the 82nd percentile among forwards. Plus-4, and eight penalty minutes.

Nobody drafted him and he has now played 361 NHL games for one club, five straight seasons of rising minutes and never fewer than twenty-five points in a full one.

The Finesse Game

1.56 even-strength points per 60 is the 35th percentile, which is the flat spot: he is playing top-six minutes and scoring at fourth-line rates. 8.83 shots per 60 is the 74th percentile and 7.9 per cent is the 20th. Forty-nine per cent from the slot at a 25-foot median — the selection is fine and the finish is not.

54.0 per cent of the expected goals and 56.6 per cent of the attempts, the 79th and 92nd percentiles. His ice went 39-37 against an expectation of 48.07-40.97, so he was nine goals short of what the model expected his shifts to produce.

He was better without his most frequent partners. With Kempe across 1,035 attempts he was at 52.8 and 55.3 apart; with Kopitar, 52.4 and 55.6 apart. With Danault he rose to 57.0 and with Matt Roy to 57.6.

The Physical Game

0.57 giveaways per 60 is the 6th-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards and 0.16 penalties taken per 60 is the 9th-fewest. Two league-wide extremes in the same column, both about not making mistakes. He also blocks — 2.18 per 60, the 75th percentile.

1.97 hits per 60 is the 20th percentile. He does not finish checks and never has.

He killed 1:38 a night, the 78th percentile, and played 2:46 on the power play, the 79th — one of a handful of Kings forwards trusted on both.

The Intangibles

23.1 mph is the 85th percentile and 94.7 mph of shot speed is the 83rd, so the tools are better than the production. 9.09 miles per 60 is the 12th percentile, which is the counterweight: he is quick and he does not cover much ground.

The value here is subtraction — a top-six winger who never loses the puck and never goes to the box. What it is not is scoring, and thirty-seven points at 18:30 a night is the number a club eventually has to price honestly.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.10 penalty minutes a game over 79, 3rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Nobody drafted him and he has now played 361 NHL games for one club, five straight seasons of rising minutes and never fewer than twenty-five points in a full one.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “0.57 giveaways per 60 is the 6th-fewest of the 393 qualified forwards and 0.16 penalties taken per 60 is the 9th-fewest.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He killed 1:38 a night, the 78th percentile, and played 2:46 on the power play, the 79th — one of a handful of Kings forwards trusted on both.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,076 minutes

Expected goals
54%
82nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.6%
94th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 37 against. Expected: 48.1 and 41.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
82nd

The numbers rank him 49 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
91st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.33 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.80 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.7 mph
89th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1076 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.0% — 1.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,076 minutes at five-on-five — 72nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Adrian Kempe52.8%55.3%50.0%
Anze Kopitar52.4%55.6%54.7%
Phillip Danault57.0%52.1%56.3%

52.8% together, 55.3% for him apart and 50.0% for Kempe apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

291 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.