Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

48

Tomas Hertl

Vegas Golden Knights Center

Fifty-seven per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet, 32 goals, and fourteen of them a man up.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14SJS37151025+1143039815.315:20
2014-15SJS82131831-5163041459.014:33
2015-16SJS81212546+162630320210.415:58
2016-17SJS49101222-81410410010.017:13
2017-18SJS79222446-24161517512.618:06
2018-19SJS77353974+518111517619.919:01
2019-20SJS48162036-181622111713.718:27
2020-21SJS50192443+12741211217.019:08
2021-22SJS82303464-93060620514.619:56
2022-23SJS79224163-364260118312.019:17
2023-24SJS/VGK54172138-282261212413.720:29
2024-25VGK73322961-320140317718.117:07
2025-26 so far
Career791252297549-7627665639181413.917:53

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

32 goals and 29 assists in 73 games — 61 points at 17:07 a night, with 14 power-play goals and 3 game-winners on 177 shots, converting at 18.1 per cent.

56.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 94th percentile. His ice went 35-39 against an expectation of 43.18-33.54 — eight goals of scoring missing and six conceded above expectation.

The Finesse Game

177 attempts at a median of 17 feet with 57 per cent from inside 20 and 12 per cent from beyond 40. He shoots from the paint and he has for a decade, and an 18.1 per cent conversion on that profile is not a fluke.

29 assists. The hands in tight are genuinely good and the passing is honest; the whole of the value is that he goes to the front of the net and stays there.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 220 and he is very difficult to move. He establishes position in the crease and grown men do not shift him, and he wins pucks below the goal line by leaning on people.

20 penalty minutes in 73 games is a low rate for a player who plays this way. He does not retaliate and he does not go looking for anything.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2012 and 791 games and 549 points, eleven seasons of it in San Jose, including a season lost entirely to a reconstructed knee.

He is 32 and Vegas acquired him at the 2024 deadline. Thirty-two goals in his first full season here is more than he managed in the four before it.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 964 minutes

Expected goals
56.3%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.4%
86th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 39 against. Expected: 43.2 and 33.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
88th
Numbers
95th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 964 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
VGK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.3% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 964 minutes at five-on-five — 56th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Pavel Dorofeyev57.5%54.6%56.3%
Brayden McNabb58.9%55.1%53.7%
Noah Hanifin58.6%55.2%55.0%

57.5% together, 54.6% for him apart and 56.3% for Dorofeyev apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

259 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 32 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 58% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.