Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

61

Trevor Lewis

Calgary Flames Center

The 3rd-lowest takeaway rate and the 4th-lowest giveaway rate of the 393 qualified forwards — a man who barely touches the puck.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09LAK6123000001010.011:36
2009-10LAK5000-3000040.09:08
2010-11LAK7231013-1160021052.911:29
2011-12LAK72347-3260011032.913:14
2012-13LAK485914+519012925.415:12
2013-14LAK736511-160121115.413:15
2014-15LAK7391625+8140121436.314:06
2015-16LAK758816-10200111674.814:34
2016-17LAK82121224-6301031458.314:16
2017-18LAK68141226-62512313410.415:14
2018-19LAK443912-99001873.514:01
2019-20LAK566612-716001926.511:54
2020-21WPG565510+72021687.39:52
2021-22CGY8061016-1120111085.612:50
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—81081108189-37185292013695.913:19

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 10 assists in 80 games — 16 points at 12:50 a night, minus-1, with 12 penalty minutes.

46.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 899 minutes, the 18th percentile among forwards — on a club that took 55.2 per cent of them. His ice went 27-33 against an expectation of 29.59-34.56.

0.95 even-strength points per 60 is the 6th percentile among forwards. Sixteen points in 80 games at thirty-five.

The Finesse Game

0.64 takeaways per 60 is the 3rd-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards and 0.53 giveaways per 60 is the 4th-lowest. Those two figures together describe a player who is almost never on the puck in either direction, which is a real and unusual thing to be able to measure.

5.6 per cent shooting is the 7th percentile, from a median of 30 feet at the 88th with 40 per cent of his shots from the slot at the 13th. He shoots from distance and does not score.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 205. 10.29 hits per 60 is the 90th percentile among forwards and 2.34 blocks is the 79th, with 1:43 a night shorthanded at the 81st.

0.35 penalties taken per 60 is the 15th percentile and his drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.47 is the 85th. He hits at the 90th percentile and fouls almost nobody, which is a harder combination than it sounds.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2006 by Los Angeles, two Stanley Cups, and 810 NHL games at 35 with 189 points.

With Milan Lucic on the ice Calgary took 40.4 per cent of the chances; without him Lewis was at 50.2, across 695 attempts together and 880 apart. He is a penalty-killing fourth-line winger in his fifteenth season and a 111-point club used him for 80 games. The chance-share figure is the reason that is a question rather than an answer.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    32.6% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.15 penalty minutes a game over 80, 8th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “10.29 hits per 60 is the 90th percentile among forwards”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:43 a night shorthanded at the 81st”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 899 minutes

Expected goals
46.1%
23rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.8%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 33 against. Expected: 29.6 and 34.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
23rd

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
43rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.11 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.10 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
45th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 899 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.1% — 9.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 899 minutes at five-on-five — 50th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Milan Lucic40.4%50.2%56.6%
Christopher Tanev46.3%46.1%56.7%
Erik Gudbranson50.8%43.7%54.6%

40.4% together, 50.2% for him apart and 56.6% for Lucic apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

141 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 33% from beyond forty.