Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

8

Drew Doughty

Los Angeles Kings Defense

Thirty-nine games at 25:44, and three separate forwards took about ten points more of the chances with him than without him.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09LAK8162127-17563011264.823:50
2009-10LAK82164359+205490514211.324:59
2010-11LAK76112940+13685031397.925:39
2011-12LAK77102636-2693031685.924:54
2012-13LAK4861622+4363001145.326:24
2013-14LAK78102737+17646021775.725:43
2014-15LAK8273946+3561022193.229:00
2015-16LAK82143751+24529131977.128:01
2016-17LAK82123244+8465011816.627:09
2017-18LAK82105060+23543142054.926:50
2018-19LAK8283745-34447011545.226:36
2019-20LAK6772835-16365021415.025:49
2020-21LAK5682634-14266001017.926:23
2021-22LAK3972431+430401997.125:44
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1014132435567+336916922821636.126:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Thirty-nine of eighty-two games, at 25:44 in each of them. Seven goals and 24 assists is a 65-point pace, which would have beaten the 60 of 2017-18 for the best season of his career. He was plus-4, and nobody who watched the year will remember that.

1,014 games and 567 points — seventh in both among the 223 defencemen in this book.

The Finesse Game

He misses the percentile tables, which want forty games, so this is the raw record. 56.3 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals across 764 minutes, second among the club’s defencemen behind Alexander Edler. His ice went 36-33 against an expectation of 35.47-27.50 — he beat the model going forward and his goaltending handed it back.

99 shots at a 51-foot median, ten per cent inside twenty feet, seventy-one per cent from beyond forty, at 98.3 mph — second-hardest on the roster behind Arthur Kaliyev. He shoots from the line and the puck arrives early.

Then the pair file, which is emphatic. Viktor Arvidsson took 65.3 per cent of the chances with him and 55.6 without. Phillip Danault, 66.1 and 53.9. Trevor Moore, 63.7 and 53.5. Mikey Anderson, 57.7 beside him and 48.8 alone. Doughty himself sits at 50-52 per cent when those forwards are on the bench, so this is not a passenger on a good line — the same men get worse the moment he leaves.

The Physical Game

Thirty penalty minutes in thirty-nine games. He is not a punisher and is not asked to be one; the job is 25:44 against the other team’s best and the first unit of both special teams.

The absence is the physical story. A club that gets 764 five-on-five minutes from its best defenceman instead of 1,600 has to find the other eight hundred somewhere, and where Los Angeles found them was Tobias Bjornfot and Sean Durzi — a 21-year-old with the worst possession record on the club, and a first-year man.

The Intangibles

3.53 miles a game is the 97th percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty, at a top speed of 21.5 mph, the 14th. He covers more ground than almost anybody and is quick almost never — the shape the chips keep finding under good defencemen, and the reason a raw speed percentile says nothing useful on its own.

Fourteen years, 1,014 games and one club, and a pair file in which three different forwards played their best hockey of the season beside him. At 32, with the last two seasons at 67 and 39 games, the only real question about him is availability — and nothing in this data forecasts that.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    4 of 88 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.5%, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    56.3% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 52.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.3, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “3.53 miles a game is the 97th percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty, at a top speed of 21.5 mph, the 14th.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Fourteen years, 1,014 games and one club, and a pair file in which three different forwards played their best hockey of the season beside him.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 764 minutes

Expected goals
56.3%
91st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58.8%
99th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 33 against. Expected: 35.5 and 27.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
87th
Numbers
91st

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 39 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
48th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.49 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.53 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.3 mph
87th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 764 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.3% — 3.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 764 minutes at five-on-five — 37th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mikey Anderson57.7%51.4%48.8%
Anze Kopitar52.9%58.6%53.9%
Viktor Arvidsson65.3%50.4%55.6%

57.7% together, 51.4% for him apart and 48.8% for Anderson apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

124 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.