Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

88

David Pastrnak

Boston Bruins Right Wing

106 points on a club that scored 210 goals, and an on-ice goal differential of minus-9 to go with it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15BOS46101727+1282039310.813:58
2015-16BOS51151126+32000210813.913:57
2016-17BOS75343670+1134100626213.017:59
2017-18BOS82354580+1037130524614.217:58
2018-19BOS66384381+632170423516.218:45
2019-20BOS70484795+21402001027917.218:58
2020-21BOS48202848+102460317611.418:37
2021-22BOS72403777+1320150931212.818:36
2022-23BOS826152113+34381801340715.019:34
2023-24BOS824763110+2147120538212.319:56
2024-25BOS82436310604290431913.520:11
2025-26 so far
Career756391442833+141342122064281913.918:21

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

43 goals and 63 assists in 82 games for 106 points, even, on 20:11 a night and 319 shots — the 4th-highest point total in the league on a club that missed the playoffs by 15 points.

50.3 per cent at five-on-five, the 55th percentile, which is the interesting number. His on-ice goals were 31-40 against an expected 50-49: the chances were even and the goals were not, by 9. That is a season of goaltending and finishing luck running against the best player on the roster.

The Finesse Game

The release is the best in the league and it has been for five years. He gets it away off either foot, off the pass, without a windup, and he changes the angle on it late — 43 goals on 319 shots is what happens when a shooter of this quality is also the only man on his club taking that many.

The playmaking has grown into the larger half. 63 assists is a career high and it is not a power-play artefact; he holds pucks on the wall and finds a seam that most shooters never look for. A quarter of his attempts come from inside 20 feet and a third from beyond 40, which is a man taking whatever the shift will give him because the shift often gives him nothing.

The Physical Game

6 feet and 199, and he is not a physical winger. He avoids the wall and does not forecheck with weight, and possession is given up rather than fought for.

42 penalty minutes is higher than usual for him and reads as frustration. The durability is exceptional — five consecutive full seasons, and he has missed almost nothing in a decade.

The Intangibles

Twelve seasons in one organisation, a Cup, and the first year of his career spent on a team that was not trying to win. He put up 106 points in it.

The question that now attaches to him is how many of these years the club can afford to waste. He turns 30 in May, the contract runs long, and a club that has traded its captain and sold at a deadline is asking its best player to be patient at exactly the age where patience costs the most.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,229 minutes

Expected goals
50.3%
56th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 40 against. Expected: 49.9 and 49.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
56th

The report ranks him 37 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1229 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
BOS took 48.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.3% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,229 minutes at five-on-five — 87th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Pavel Zacha50.5%49.9%43.8%
Morgan Geekie53.2%45.0%46.4%
Mason Lohrei51.7%49.6%46.4%

50.5% together, 49.9% for him apart and 43.8% for Zacha apart. Zacha was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Zacha than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

431 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 43 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 25% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 33% from beyond forty.