Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

67

Rickard Rakell

Pittsburgh Penguins Right Wing

Twenty goals and the 9th-fewest penalties taken of 393 forwards, on the 13th-slowest top speed of 365.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13ANA4000-2000030.08:57
2013-14ANA18044-32000220.011:43
2014-15ANA7192231+6102011058.612:34
2015-16ANA72202343-11940716911.816:04
2016-17ANA71331851+1012501017718.617:23
2017-18ANA77343569+61480323014.819:25
2018-19ANA69182543-13276021949.318:28
2019-20ANA65152742-5123021868.118:10
2020-21ANA5291928-14120011446.317:50
2021-22ANA/PIT7020214101250218410.917:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—569158194352-1612033028141411.216:59

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

70 games between Anaheim and Pittsburgh, 20 goals and 21 assists at 17:59 a night, even, twelve penalty minutes, 184 shots. Thirtieth overall in 2011 by Anaheim, ten seasons, 569 games, 352 points.

The Finesse Game

1.69 even-strength points per 60 is the 43rd percentile and twenty-four per cent of his points came on the power play off 2:17 a night at the 68th.

8.77 shots per 60 is the 73rd percentile at 10.9 per cent, from a 26-foot median with forty-nine per cent from the slot. Ordinary volume, ordinary conversion, ordinary geography — this is a file with almost nothing extreme in it on the offensive side.

1.33 takeaways per 60 is the 28th percentile against 1.62 giveaways at the 55th.

53.2 per cent of the expected goals and 51.8 per cent of the attempts, out of 62.8 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 26th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. That is one of the thirty softest chairs in hockey, and half of it was taken in Anaheim.

His ice went 54-40 against an expectation of 48.31-42.47 — six goals of surplus in front.

The Physical Game

4.72 hits per 60 is the 59th percentile at 6-1 and 194 pounds, and 2.10 blocks the 73rd.

0.29 penalties taken per 60 is the 9th-fewest of the 393 forwards who played forty games, and twelve penalty minutes in seventy games is one of the cleanest seasons anywhere in this book. 0.38 penalties drawn per 60 is the 10th percentile — he is barely involved in either direction.

The Intangibles

21.7 mph is the 13th-slowest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers and 2.9 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 18th percentile.

Against 9.97 miles per 60 at the 78th. A great deal of ground at a slow pace — the same signature Evgeni Malkin and Danton Heinen carry, and the one that describes most of this forward group.

His shot is 94.1 mph, the 78th percentile, so the twenty goals are not a placement trick.

He is 29 with 158 career goals and two thirty-goal seasons behind him, thirty-three in 2016-17 and thirty-four in 2017-18, both in Anaheim. The scoring is real and unremarkable, the discipline is genuinely exceptional, and the skating is the number that decides how the next three seasons go.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    14:52 a game at five-on-five, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    63% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,041 minutes

Expected goals
53.2%
77th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 54 for, 40 against. Expected: 48.3 and 42.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
77th

The numbers rank him 24 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 70 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.87 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.99 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.1 mph
86th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with ANA · 757 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PIT took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.2% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
1,041 minutes at five-on-five — 67th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Trevor Zegras56.7%50.0%48.1%
Sonny Milano60.6%50.2%48.5%
Hampus Lindholm54.8%52.6%47.1%

56.7% together, 50.0% for him apart and 48.1% for Zegras apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

265 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.