Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →

92

Jonathan Drouin

Montreal Canadiens Left Wing

Third overall in 2013, a career minus-68, and the worst chance share of any Montreal skater who played twenty games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15TBL7042832+334300765.313:14
2015-16TBL214610+140012516.014:27
2016-17TBL73213253-131690618311.517:42
2017-18MTL77133346-28304041647.917:36
2018-19MTL81183553-8263031909.516:56
2019-20MTL277815-6141015113.715:42
2020-21MTL4422123-820000762.616:05
2021-22MTL3461420-923000629.717:06
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—42775177252-68167200158279.116:18

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 14 assists in thirty-four games at 17:06 a night, minus-9, twenty-three penalty minutes. Third overall in 2013, eight seasons, 427 games, 252 points, a career minus-68.

Four hundred and seventy-six five-on-five minutes is below every qualifying line, so this is the raw record.

The Finesse Game

His ice took 40.2 per cent of the five-on-five expected goals — the worst share of any Montreal skater who played twenty games, on a club that finished 27th in the league at it. His ice went 20-19 against an expectation of 16.74-24.93, so the goals against came in six better than the chances warranted.

Sixty-two shots, six goals, 9.7 per cent, from a 27-foot median with a third inside twenty feet.

49.0 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end — essentially neutral, which removes the obvious excuse for a share that bad.

Fourteen assists in thirty-four games is a real rate, and 177 of his 252 career points are assists. The passing has never been the question.

The Physical Game

Twenty-three penalty minutes in thirty-four games at 5-11 and 189. Across 476 minutes the counting stats do not support a rate claim in either direction.

The Intangibles

21.6 mph is the 17th percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty games, and 0.9 sprints a game is the 42nd. He is not fast and does not cover much ground, which for a player whose case has always been skill rather than pace is not disqualifying.

He is 27, and the record is 427 games, 252 points, a minus-68, and five seasons in Montreal that have produced 77, 81, 27, 44 and 34 games. The availability is the story and this repo cannot see why.

A third-overall pick with genuine passing at 27 is not a lost cause, and it is also eight seasons of not holding a lineup spot. Both sentences are true.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 476 minutes

Expected goals
40.2%
3rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.7%
9th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 19 against. Expected: 16.7 and 24.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
6th
Numbers
3rd

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 48 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 34 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
28th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.85 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.57 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.1 mph
50th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 476 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MTL took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 40.2% — 6.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 476 minutes at five-on-five — 17th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Christian Dvorak39.4%40.9%45.1%
Josh Anderson42.2%38.7%48.2%
David Savard40.0%40.3%46.0%

39.4% together, 40.9% for him apart and 45.1% for Dvorak apart. Dvorak was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

85 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.