Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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90

Joe Veleno

Detroit Red Wings Center

The 8th-worst chance share of the 393 qualified forwards, and 8.46 hits per 60 at thirteen minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21DET510104100812.515:06
2021-22DET668715-14220007311.013:13
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—719716-14261008111.113:21

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

8 goals and 7 assists in 66 games — 15 points, a minus-14 and 22 penalty minutes at 13:13 a night, the 26th percentile among forwards.

39.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 816 minutes — the 8th-worst of the 393 qualified forwards. His ice went 23-36 against an expectation of 23.8-36.7: the chances and the goals agreed almost exactly, which means the share is the whole story and nothing was unlucky about it.

The Finesse Game

5.02 shots per 60 is the 12th percentile among forwards and 1.09 even-strength points per 60 is the 11th. Eight goals on 73 shots is 11.0 per cent, the 45th — the conversion is fine and the volume is not.

No power-play time worth the name — 0:24 a night, and none of his fifteen points came there.

0.83 giveaways per 60 is the 8th percentile against 1.31 takeaways at the 26th. He does not lose the puck and he does not get it.

51 per cent of his shots came from the slot at a median of 25 feet — the right places, five times a night.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 201. 8.46 hits per 60 is the 65th-most of the 393 qualified forwards and 1.72 blocks is the 51st percentile. The contact is the case for him and it is a real number at thirteen minutes.

22.6 mph is the 57th percentile and 6.5 bursts over 20 mph per 60 the 65th, with 9.90 miles per 60 at the 71st. All three are the most ordinary skating file in this chapter, which for a fourth-line centre is neither an argument nor an obstacle.

0.69 penalties taken per 60 is the 56th percentile — twenty-two minutes in sixty-six games.

38.0 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, the 4th percentile among forwards — the lowest of any Detroit forward the tracking qualifies, on the worst chance share on the club.

The Intangibles

Thirtieth overall in 2018, and 71 NHL games at 22 — sixty-six of them last season.

Thirty-ninth per cent of the chances is the number that has to move, and it is worth being precise about how bad it is: of the 393 forwards who qualify for a peer group, only seven finished lower.

A first-round centre who forechecks, hits, is careful with the puck and does not create is a fourth-line player. Detroit has three of those already. The question the season did not answer is whether there is a scoring gear at all, and 5.02 shots per 60 is not an encouraging first data point.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “The contact is the case for him and it is a real number at thirteen minutes.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 816 minutes

Expected goals
39.3%
3rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.1%
11th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 36 against. Expected: 23.8 and 36.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
9th
Numbers
3rd

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 50 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.44 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.18 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.9 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 816 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DET took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.3% — 6.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 816 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sam Gagner38.1%40.3%46.8%
Filip Hronek38.1%40.0%47.4%
Moritz Seider41.1%38.6%46.1%

38.1% together, 40.3% for him apart and 46.8% for Gagner apart. Gagner was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

95 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.