Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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28

Jack Roslovic

Columbus Blue Jackets Center

Twenty-two goals at 16.8 per cent shooting, the 90th percentile, from a median 31 feet at the 91st.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17WPG1000-1000010.08:24
2017-18WPG315914+520013813.212:19
2018-19WPG7791524-245007412.29:45
2019-20WPG71121729+41210011710.314:54
2020-21CBJ48122234-11144018514.116:54
2021-22CBJ81222345+21240413116.814:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—3096086146-344140644613.513:29

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

22 goals and 23 assists in 81 games — 45 points at 14:17 a night, plus-2, with 12 penalty minutes.

45.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 978 minutes, the 17th percentile among forwards. His ice went 48-48 against an expectation of 39.01-46.01, so the goals for ran nine past the chances.

Twenty-two goals in his fourth full season, and the first time he has scored more than twelve.

The Finesse Game

16.8 per cent shooting is the 90th percentile among forwards — 22 goals on 131 shots. 2.35 even-strength points per 60 is the 77th percentile.

40 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 13th percentile, on a median distance of 31 feet at the 91st. He scores from further out than almost anyone at his rate, which is the figure that will decide whether 22 repeats.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 198, 3.11 hits per 60 is the 38th percentile and 1.30 blocks is the 30th. He is not physical and he is not asked to be.

23.2 mph and 10.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60, the 90th percentiles in both. The speed is the real asset and it is the reason 14 minutes a night produced 22 goals.

0.31 penalties drawn per 60 is the 5th percentile among forwards. A fast winger who is never fouled is a fast winger going around the outside.

The Intangibles

Twenty-fifth overall in 2015 by Winnipeg, and 309 games with 146 points at 25.

He is from Columbus, and his 22-goal season arrived in the year the club signed a winger who will take his power-play time. The speed will keep him employed; the shot distance is why the number may not.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.15 penalty minutes a game over 81, 7th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    66% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The speed is the real asset and it is the reason 14 minutes a night produced 22 goals.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 978 minutes

Expected goals
45.9%
22nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.5%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 48 for, 48 against. Expected: 39.0 and 46.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
22nd

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
23.2 mph
93rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.59 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.32 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.7 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 978 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.9% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 978 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jakub Voracek42.2%48.1%43.7%
Andrew Peeke46.3%45.7%42.9%
Vladislav Gavrikov45.3%46.2%45.5%

42.2% together, 48.1% for him apart and 43.7% for Voracek apart. He was better away from Voracek, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Voracek.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

182 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 22 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.