Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

JV

Jakub Voracek

Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing

Fifty-six assists and six goals in 79 games, at 4.1 per cent shooting — the 11th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09CBJ8092938+11440011018.912:40
2009-10CBJ81163450-72640115410.415:37
2010-11CBJ80143246-3262021837.616:58
2011-12PHI78183149+11320021909.516:17
2012-13PHI48222446-73580312917.117:14
2013-14PHI82233962+11228022359.817:15
2014-15PHI82225981+178110322110.018:36
2015-16PHI73114455-5381022135.218:35
2016-17PHI82204161-24565032537.919:05
2017-18PHI82206585+10505032288.819:27
2018-19PHI78204666-16254022109.518:40
2019-20PHI69124456+14314031329.117:03
2020-21PHI5393443-12180021048.616:55
2021-22CBJ7965662-13442021474.117:28
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1047222578800-295255403125008.917:17

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 56 assists in 79 games — 62 points at 17:28 a night, minus-13, with 44 penalty minutes.

43.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,063 minutes, the 7th percentile among forwards. His ice went 46-49 against an expectation of 39.33-51.71.

Six goals on 147 shots is 4.1 per cent, the 11th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards. He has never scored more than 23 in a season, and this was the year the shooting stopped entirely.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-six assists is the report. 40 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 96th percentile, on 3:13 a night at the 90th — he runs the top unit, and it is where the largest single block of his production comes from.

32 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 3rd percentile, on a median distance of 33 feet at the 97th. He does not shoot to score, and the 4.1 per cent is not bad luck so much as a description of where the puck leaves his stick.

2.22 giveaways per 60 is the 84th percentile and counts against him, which is the ordinary price of a man who holds the puck to make a play.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 216, 1.17 hits per 60 is the 8th percentile among forwards and 1.22 blocks per 60 is the 25th. He plays a large man’s game without a large man’s contact.

1.13 penalties drawn per 60 is the 81st percentile and his drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.52 is the 88th. 23.2 mph is the 90th percentile among forwards at 33 years old, which is the most surprising figure on this page.

The Intangibles

Seventh overall in 2007 by Columbus, ten seasons in Philadelphia, and back here at 32.

One thousand and forty-seven games, 222 goals and 800 points — the only man on this roster who has played a thousand. He is 33, and the club has just spent its summer on a winger who does the same job better.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    37.0% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “He does not shoot to score, and the 4.1 per cent is not bad luck so much as a description of where the puck leaves his stick.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “1.17 hits per 60 is the 8th percentile among forwards and 1.22 blocks per 60 is the 25th.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,063 minutes

Expected goals
43.2%
11th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.2%
23rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 49 against. Expected: 39.3 and 51.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
11th

The report ranks him 27 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
23.2 mph
93rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.28 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.4 mph
69th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1063 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.2% — 1.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,063 minutes at five-on-five — 70th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Zach Werenski43.3%43.2%46.4%
Patrik Laine39.5%45.2%41.3%
Jack Roslovic42.2%43.7%48.1%

43.3% together, 43.2% for him apart and 46.4% for Werenski apart. Werenski was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

192 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 36% from beyond forty.