Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

42

Givani Smith

Detroit Red Wings Right Wing

One hundred and eight penalty minutes in 46 games at eight and a half minutes a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20DET21213-29000229.19:41
2020-21DET16134-521001205.010:35
2021-22DET46437-6108000508.08:28
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—837714-13138001927.69:11

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 3 assists in 46 games — 7 points, a minus-6 and 108 penalty minutes at 8:28 a night.

Forty-six games and 388 minutes is short of the 500 this book requires for a peer group, so the figures below are raw. 45.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across those 388 minutes; his ice went 11-18 against an expectation of 12.86-15.56.

One hundred and eight minutes in forty-six games is 2.3 a night from a man who plays eight and a half. That is the season.

The Finesse Game

Fifty shots in forty-six games, four of which went in. The median travels 27 feet and 36 per cent came from inside twenty — an ordinary fourth-line chart.

No power-play time. He has no power-play goals in 83 NHL games.

89.2 mph off the stick, which is ordinary, with the standing caveat that a maximum is a season best and 388 minutes is a small number of chances at one.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 214, and the file is one number.

1.39 miles a game is the 2nd-least ground covered of the 568 skaters the tracking followed for forty games or more, behind Michael Pezzetta’s 1.29. At eight and a half minutes a night that is arithmetic rather than a verdict — a man who plays a third of a regular shift covers a third of the ground — but it is also the shape of the role: very short shifts, spent finishing checks and standing in scrums.

22.1 mph top speed, which is respectable, and 1.0 bursts over 20 mph a game.

One hundred and eight penalty minutes. The repo records penalties taken and cannot tell a fighting major from a hook, so it cannot tell you what kind of player this is — only that a very large share of his ice time ended with him leaving it.

The Intangibles

Forty-sixth overall in 2016, the second round, and 83 NHL games at 24 with 14 points and 138 penalty minutes.

Three seasons of twenty-one, sixteen and forty-six games. The role has not changed and neither has the production.

A 24-year-old who fights, plays eight minutes and has fourteen points in three seasons is the most replaceable job in hockey, and the reason a club keeps one is not in this repo and is not measurable by it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “very short shifts, spent finishing checks and standing in scrums”

  • nastypresent and ordinary· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “The repo records penalties taken and cannot tell a fighting major from a hook, so it cannot tell you what kind of player this is”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 388 minutes

Expected goals
45.2%
19th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.3%
24th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 11 for, 18 against. Expected: 12.9 and 15.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
19th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 49 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 46 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
50th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.96 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.2 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 388 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DET took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.2% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 388 minutes at five-on-five — 12th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sam Gagner45.7%44.9%43.0%
Marc Staal35.7%49.4%47.9%
Moritz Seider41.9%46.5%45.6%

45.7% together, 44.9% for him apart and 43.0% for Gagner apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

56 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 37 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.