Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

42

Givani Smith

San Jose Sharks Right Wing

Two hundred and fifty career penalty minutes in 155 games, and nine goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20DET21213-29000229.19:41
2020-21DET16134-521001205.010:35
2021-22DET46437-6108000508.08:28
2022-23DET/FLA36134-272000303.37:00
2023-24SJS36134-1340000313.27:49
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—15591322-282500011535.98:22

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

36 games, 1 goal and 3 assists for 4 points, 40 penalty minutes, 7:49 a night and minus-13. He took 39.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 281 minutes, the 10th percentile, and his ice went 6-19 against an expectation of 9.58-14.41.

Four goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and five more conceded than they called for, across two hundred and eighty minutes. Six goals for and nineteen against in that time is the fourth line on the worst club in the league.

The Finesse Game

38 attempts at a median of 32 feet with 37 per cent of them from inside twenty and 34 per cent from beyond forty, 28 of those on goal, converted at 3.2 per cent against a career 5.88 across 153 shots.

Nine career goals in 155 games. There is no scoring here and there never has been; the shot is a way of getting the puck deep rather than a threat, and 13 career assists over five seasons is the rest of it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 214 and took 40 penalty minutes in 36 games.

250 career penalty minutes in 155 games — the fifth-highest rate of anybody in this edition with a hundred games. He fights, he runs people, and at eight minutes a night that is the whole of the job description.

The Intangibles

Forty-sixth overall in 2016 by Detroit, five seasons, three organisations, and 22 points in 155 games.

A career minus-28 in 155 games. He was a second-round pick who has become a heavyweight fourth-liner, and on a club that lost 54 games there was more of that work available than usual.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He fights, he runs people, and at eight minutes a night that is the whole of the job description.”

  • net-fronthe lacks it· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “There is no scoring here and there never has been; the shot is a way of getting the puck deep rather than a threat, and 13 career assists over five seasons is the rest of it.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “250 career penalty minutes in 155 games — the fifth-highest rate of anybody in this edition with a hundred games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 281 minutes

Expected goals
39.9%
5th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44%
13th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 6 for, 19 against. Expected: 9.6 and 14.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
35th
Numbers
5th

The report ranks him 30 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 36 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
36th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.31 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.2 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 281 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
SJS took 40.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.9% — 0.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
281 minutes at five-on-five — 5th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ryan Carpenter45.3%32.0%46.2%
Kyle Burroughs43.8%36.8%44.0%
Mario Ferraro39.1%40.3%43.6%

45.3% together, 32.0% for him apart and 46.2% for Carpenter apart. He was worse away from Carpenter, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Carpenter did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

38 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 22 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 34% from beyond forty.