Armchair Scout
Erik Cernak

Photo by Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at

Erik Cernak

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense #81

Five hundred and two games, twenty-six goals, and seventy-nine per cent of his shots from beyond forty feet.

SeasonGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2025-26613811+374001535.717:37
Career5022694120+964411136603.918:53

Last Season

Three goals and eight assists in 61 games — 11 points, plus-three, at 17:37 a night with 74 penalty minutes. Twenty-one games missed.

The Finesse Game

None. Eighty unblocked attempts from a median of 54 feet, 79 per cent from beyond forty, thirteen per cent from inside twenty, three goals.

Twenty-six goals in 502 career games. Eight assists in 61 games is near the bottom of this edition and nobody has ever asked him for more.

The Physical Game

Six foot four and 230 pounds, and among the heaviest hitters in the league. Seventy-four penalty minutes.

He clears his crease violently, defends the front of his net better than almost anybody, and has a long injury record that comes from the way he plays.

The Intangibles

Fifty-three point two per cent of the expected goals, 78th percentile, against only 49.6 per cent of the shot attempts, 53rd, across 897 minutes — with the goals 50 for and 32 against.

That gap between chance share and attempt share is the whole argument for a defenceman of this type: the shots against come, and they come from the outside.

Two points in his last ten, both goals. He is 29, two Stanley Cups, and the sort of player whose value shows up in a seven-game series and nowhere in a scoring summary.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 897 minutes

Expected goals
53.2%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.6%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 32 against. Expected: 36.4 and 32.0.

The eye and the numbers

Report
69
Numbers
78

The eye and the numbers broadly agree on him.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

2

points in his last 10 games — 2 goals, 0 assists, 15 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 897 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

80 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 6 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 79% from beyond forty.