Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

11

Dylan Guenther

Arizona Coyotes Right Wing

Ninth overall, six goals in thirty-three games at nineteen, and four of them on the power play.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23ARI336915-7104015311.313:07
2023-24 so far
Career336915-7104015311.313:07

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 9 assists in 33 games — 15 points at 13:07 a night, minus-7, with 4 power-play goals on 53 shots, converting at 11.32 per cent, and 10 penalty minutes.

He was nineteen, he was returned to junior partway through, and he won a World Junior gold in the middle of it. 41 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 375 minutes, the 6th percentile — a nineteen-year-old on the third line of a bad team, which is what that number describes.

Four of his six goals came on the power play, which is where a young scorer is protected and where the evidence is weakest.

The Finesse Game

53 attempts at a median of 33 feet, 22 per cent from inside 20 and 26 per cent from beyond 40, off a shot measured at 84.0 mph — the 9th percentile, though a nineteen-year-old’s velocity is a number that moves.

The junior record is the real evidence and it is very good: he scored 45 goals in 59 games in his final WHL season. Thirty-three NHL games is not enough to say anything, and the honest reading is that the shot and the release looked NHL-calibre and the rest of the game did not yet.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 191 and still filling out. He is not physical and does not need to be yet.

The skating is fine rather than special at 22.4 mph, the 56th percentile, on 2.18 miles a game at the 24th — which is a young player having short, sheltered shifts rather than one who does not work.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2021, and the most important forward prospect this organisation has, which on this roster is both a compliment and a warning.

He is 20. Arizona has handled him correctly so far — thirty-three games, then back to junior rather than a full season of losing at nineteen — and the thing to watch this year is whether the club keeps that discipline once the games start going badly.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 375 minutes

Expected goals
41%
6th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.3%
13th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 16 against. Expected: 11.3 and 16.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
49th
Numbers
6th

The report ranks him 43 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 375 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
ARI took 45.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.0% — 4.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
375 minutes at five-on-five — 10th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nick Bjugstad42.9%38.8%50.3%
J.J. Moser42.2%40.3%45.5%
Lawson Crouse44.9%38.8%49.0%

42.9% together, 38.8% for him apart and 50.3% for Bjugstad apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Bjugstad and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

73 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 25 feet. 22% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.