This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Connor Bedard
Chicago Blackhawks Center
67 points at 19, a minus-36, and a 41.1 per cent chance share that is the 3rd percentile in the league.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | CHI | 68 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -44 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 206 | 10.7 | 19:47 |
| 2024-25 | CHI | 82 | 23 | 44 | 67 | -36 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 195 | 11.8 | 20:17 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 150 | 45 | 83 | 128 | -80 | 98 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 401 | 11.2 | 20:03 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
23 goals and 44 assists in 82 games for 67 points, minus-36, on 20:17 a night and 195 shots, with 11 on the power play.
41.1 per cent at five-on-five, the 3rd percentile among all skaters in the league. His on-ice goals were 40-64 against an expected 44-63. The chances were terrible and the goals matched them, and on a club that was 32nd in both shot-attempt share and chance share it is genuinely difficult to know how much of it is him.
The Finesse Game
The shot is already among the best in the league. The release is exceptionally quick, it comes off in stride, and he changes the angle late — 23 goals on 195 attempts at 11.8 per cent is a low return for a shooter this good and reflects the quality of what surrounded him.
The passing has become the larger half. 44 assists on a club that scored 218 goals is a real total and it comes from him holding the puck under pressure and finding a man late. A quarter of his shots come from inside 20 feet, which for a 5-10 centre being defended by every club’s best pair is a reasonable share.
The Physical Game
5-10 and 190, and thicker than he looks. He is not easily knocked off the puck and he goes to the interior more than a player of his size and value should have to.
70 penalty minutes at 19 is a strikingly high total and it reads as frustration on a team that lost 57 games. That is worth watching rather than worrying about.
The Intangibles
The 1st overall pick, two NHL seasons, and 128 points on the worst team in the Western Conference. He has never publicly complained about any of it.
The honest reading is that nothing has been learned yet about how good he is. A 3rd-percentile chance share is a genuine warning and it belongs to a 19-year-old playing the hardest minutes on a roster that finished last in the league in creating chances. The club’s obligation is to put somebody beside him before that number becomes a habit.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,282 minutes
- Expected goals
- 41.1%
- 3rd pct
- Shot attempts
- 42.5%
- 4th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 64 against. Expected: 44.0 and 63.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 87 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 1282 minutes at five-on-five
- Ryan Donato30%
- Frank Nazar20%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- CHI took 43.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.1% — 2.1 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,282 minutes at five-on-five — 90th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Vlasic | 39.7% | 41.9% | 43.1% |
| Ryan Donato | 42.3% | 40.6% | 44.8% |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 39.9% | 41.7% | 43.0% |
39.7% together, 41.9% for him apart and 43.1% for Vlasic apart. Vlasic was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
291 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 24% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.