Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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53

Casey Cizikas

New York Islanders Center

Eight hundred and fifteen games, eleven career shorthanded goals, and thirteen seasons for one club.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NYI15044+16000120.010:36
2012-13NYI4569150140014513.310:47
2013-14NYI8061016-1230101797.613:22
2014-15NYI709918-2240229010.012:31
2015-16NYI8082129+431014849.512:41
2016-17NYI5981725+930001829.813:54
2017-18NYI6471017-1223010749.513:13
2018-19NYI73201333+223602311118.014:01
2019-20NYI4810414+12410316714.914:18
2020-21NYI567714-227003729.713:50
2021-22NYI7410616-3480139111.013:45
2022-23NYI81615210540001115.414:32
2023-24NYI70101323-2220118212.213:56
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—815107138245+1538611120100010.713:24

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

70 games, 10 goals and 13 assists for 23 points, 1 shorthanded, 22 penalty minutes, 13:56 a night and minus-2. He took 46.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 814 minutes, the 31st percentile, and his ice went 28-29 against an expectation of 27.84-31.51.

Level at one end and three fewer conceded than the chances called for at the other. Ten goals from a fourth-line centre at 33 is more than the job asks for.

The Finesse Game

109 attempts at a median of 18 feet with 56 per cent from inside 20, 82 on goal, converted at 12.2 per cent against a career 10.70.

138 career assists in 815 games. He shoots from close in and there is no distance shot at all. Ten goals in a season is the fourth time he has managed double figures.

The Physical Game

He hits everything at 5-11 and 191 and has done for thirteen years.

386 career penalty minutes in 815 games is a moderate rate. He forechecks aggressively, wins the wall against men fifty pounds heavier, takes the defensive-zone draw and kills penalties with 11 career shorthanded goals.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2009 out of Toronto, thirteen seasons, 815 games and 245 points, all of it for one organisation.

He is 33 and has played the same twelve minutes a night since 2013. A fourth line that stays together for a decade is the most Islanders thing there is, and it has been genuinely good for most of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    31% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 3rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He hits everything at 5-11 and 191 and has done for thirteen years.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks aggressively, wins the wall against men fifty pounds heavier, takes the defensive-zone draw and kills penalties with 11 career shorthanded goals.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He forechecks aggressively, wins the wall against men fifty pounds heavier, takes the defensive-zone draw and kills penalties with 11 career shorthanded goals.”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He forechecks aggressively, wins the wall against men fifty pounds heavier, takes the defensive-zone draw and kills penalties with 11 career shorthanded goals.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He forechecks aggressively, wins the wall against men fifty pounds heavier, takes the defensive-zone draw and kills penalties with 11 career shorthanded goals.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He shoots from close in and there is no distance shot at all.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 814 minutes

Expected goals
46.9%
32nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.6%
11th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 29 against. Expected: 27.8 and 31.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
51st
Numbers
32nd

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 70 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 70 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
2.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.2 mph
46th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 814 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYI took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.9% — 2.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 814 minutes at five-on-five — 40th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cal Clutterbuck44.4%49.3%44.6%
Alexander Romanov47.7%46.4%48.8%
Noah Dobson47.4%46.7%50.1%

44.4% together, 49.3% for him apart and 44.6% for Clutterbuck apart. He was better away from Clutterbuck, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Clutterbuck.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

109 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.