Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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46

Trevor Zegras

Anaheim Ducks Center

Sixty-five points at twenty-one, then thirty-one games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21ANA2431013+612000535.715:24
2021-22ANA75233861-215090518112.717:54
2022-23ANA81234265-248840318412.518:50
2023-24ANA316915-130101738.217:05
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—2115599154-40180140949111.217:51

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 9 assists in 31 games — 15 points at 17:05 a night, minus-1, with 1 power-play goal and 1 game-winner on 73 shots, and 30 penalty minutes. He missed more than half the season.

52.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 67th percentile — the best mark of any player on this roster who was actually here. His ice went 16-16 against an expectation of 19.79-17.74.

The Finesse Game

73 attempts at a median of 28 feet, with 33 per cent from inside 20 and 15 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 8.2 per cent.

The passing is the whole player and it is close to elite. He sees a lane a beat before it exists and he will attempt the pass that a coach does not want and a penalty kill cannot cover. 99 assists in 211 career games, and two seasons of 61 and 65 points before he turned twenty-two.

The cost is the turnover. He holds it too long, and on a club with no margin the giveaway in the neutral zone is expensive.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 185 and slight. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win the wall, and he avoids contact rather than absorbing it.

30 penalty minutes in 31 games is a strange rate for a player who does not hit anybody, and it is roughing and retaliation rather than obstruction — he answers back.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2019, and 154 points in 211 games before his twenty-third birthday, on clubs that have finished near the bottom of the league every year of his career.

He is 23. Two seasons of sixty-plus points followed by an injured thirty-one-game year is the most consequential open question on this roster, because the version of him that produced 65 points at 21 is a genuine first-line centre and the version that played 31 games is a trade.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    52.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 45.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +7.7, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**The passing is the whole player and it is close to elite.** He sees a lane a beat before it exists and he will attempt the pass that a coach does not want and a penalty kill cannot cover.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “**He does not forecheck with force, he does not win the wall, and he avoids contact rather than absorbing it.**”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “**He does not forecheck with force, he does not win the wall, and he avoids contact rather than absorbing it.**”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “30 penalty minutes in 31 games is a strange rate for a player who does not hit anybody, and it is roughing and retaliation rather than obstruction — **he answers back.**”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “The cost is the turnover. He holds it too long, and on a club with no margin the giveaway in the neutral zone is expensive.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 424 minutes

Expected goals
52.7%
73rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47%
28th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 16 for, 16 against. Expected: 19.8 and 17.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
73rd

The numbers rank him 26 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 31 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
23rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
0.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.76 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
83.7 mph
31st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 424 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.7% — 6.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
424 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Troy Terry56.0%50.4%45.4%
Cam Fowler54.0%51.9%43.3%
Ryan Strome50.9%53.6%42.9%

56.0% together, 50.4% for him apart and 45.4% for Terry apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

104 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.