Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

46

Trevor Zegras

Anaheim Ducks Center

Sixty-five points at twenty-one, then thirty-one games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21ANA2431013+612000535.715:24
2021-22ANA75233861-215090518112.717:54
2022-23ANA81234265-248840318412.518:50
2023-24ANA316915-130101738.217:05
2024-25 so far
Career2115599154-40180140949111.217:51

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 9 assists in 31 games — 15 points at 17:05 a night, minus-1, with 1 power-play goal and 1 game-winner on 73 shots, and 30 penalty minutes. He missed more than half the season.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 67th percentile — the best mark of any player on this roster who was actually here. His ice went 13-15 against an expectation of 19.40-18.02.

The Finesse Game

73 attempts at a median of 28 feet, with 33 per cent from inside 20 and 15 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 8.2 per cent.

The passing is the whole player and it is close to elite. He sees a lane a beat before it exists and he will attempt the pass that a coach does not want and a penalty kill cannot cover. 99 assists in 211 career games, and two seasons of 61 and 65 points before he turned twenty-two.

The cost is the turnover. He holds it too long, and on a club with no margin the giveaway in the neutral zone is expensive.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 185 and slight. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win the wall, and he avoids contact rather than absorbing it.

30 penalty minutes in 31 games is a strange rate for a player who does not hit anybody, and it is roughing and retaliation rather than obstruction — he answers back.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2019, and 154 points in 211 games before his twenty-third birthday, on clubs that have finished near the bottom of the league every year of his career.

He is 23. Two seasons of sixty-plus points followed by an injured thirty-one-game year is the most consequential open question on this roster, because the version of him that produced 65 points at 21 is a genuine first-line centre and the version that played 31 games is a trade.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 424 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
67th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.8%
25th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 15 against. Expected: 19.4 and 18.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
72nd
Numbers
67th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 41 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 424 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 5.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
424 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Troy Terry56.4%48.3%43.9%
Cam Fowler54.8%50.1%44.9%
Ryan Strome47.1%54.0%44.6%

56.4% together, 48.3% for him apart and 43.9% for Terry apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

104 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 34% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 15% from beyond forty.