Nikolaj Ehlers

Last Season

Twenty-six goals and 45 assists in all 82 games — 71 points, plus-eight, at 16:36 a night with ten power-play goals. Twelve points in his last ten games.

The Finesse Game

Among the three or four fastest players in the league and it has never dimmed. He beats defencemen wide from a standing start and he is at his best carrying the puck through the neutral zone at speed, which is where most of his 45 assists begin.

The shooting is the curiosity. Only 19 per cent of his unblocked attempts came from inside twenty feet — the lowest share of any Carolina forward — with 32 per cent from beyond forty and a median of 34. He scored 26 goals anyway, on a quick release from distance.

He has done this his whole career. It works, and it is the reason he has never had the eighty-point season the skating suggests.

The Physical Game

Six foot even and 168 pounds, which is close to the lightest in the league. Fourteen penalty minutes in 82 games. He does not go to the net front and he does not win pucks; the entire game is played in open ice by design.

The Intangibles

Fifty-six per cent of the expected goals, 91st percentile, and 60.3 per cent of the shot attempts, 99th.

He is 30, in his eleventh season, with 591 points and a reputation for disappearing when the ice tightens. That reputation is the exact thing this book’s playoff work is about: a game built on open ice and clean speed is the game most exposed when a series turns into a checking match.

Carolina signed him to make the regular season easier. Whether he helps in May is a different question and the numbers cannot answer it.