Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

5

Sean Durzi

Los Angeles Kings Defense

Twenty-seven points as a rookie with the 3rd-largest power-play share of 202 defencemen, and 1,095 attempts stapled to Tobias Bjornfot.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22LAK6432427-9552001192.519:36
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—6432427-9552001192.519:36

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Three goals and 24 assists in sixty-four games at 19:36 a night, as a 23-year-old rookie. Minus-9. Fifty-two-second-overall in 2018, by Toronto.

The Finesse Game

Fifteen of his twenty-seven points came on the power play — 56 per cent, the 3rd-largest share of the 202 qualified defencemen. He played 2:28 a night with the extra man, the 29th-most, on a unit that finished 10th in the league in expected goals per 60. This is where his value was, and it is a narrow place to keep it.

At even strength the rate collapses: 0.65 points per 60, the 19th percentile. 5.69 shots per 60 is the 79th percentile at 2.5 per cent, from a 51-foot median.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals is the 65th percentile, ordinary — and the ordinary is doing work, because he spent 1,095 attempts paired with Tobias Bjornfot at 48.0 per cent, and read 57.8 per cent away from him. That is the largest defence-pair gap on the club and the strongest evidence that the rookie was not the problem in it.

2.54 giveaways per 60 is the 88th percentile. He handles the puck a great deal and loses it accordingly.

The Physical Game

5.79 blocks per 60 is the 24th-most of the 202 qualified defencemen, which for a first-year man playing power-play minutes is not the expected column to lead in.

0.81 penalties drawn per 60 is the 93rd percentile — he carries the puck into contact and gets rewarded for it. But 1.10 penalties taken per 60 is the 90th percentile and fifty-five penalty minutes in sixty-four games is a lot for a defenceman who does not hit. The net is slightly negative.

3.54 hits per 60 is the 44th percentile.

The Intangibles

22.0 mph, 2.2 bursts per 60 and 8.29 miles per 60 are the 52nd, 68th and 31st percentiles, and 89.9 mph is the 15th — a soft shot for a man taking that many. He is an average skater who moves the puck.

Twenty-seven points is a genuine rookie season and the shape of it is a warning: more than half on the power play, an ordinary even-strength share, and a giveaway rate in the top eighth of the league. The pair file is the reason to be patient with him anyway — 57.8 per cent away from Bjornfot is a real number, and he played most of his season not getting it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “5.79 blocks per 60 is the 24th-most of the 202 qualified defencemen”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.10 penalties taken per 60 is the 90th percentile and fifty-five penalty minutes in sixty-four games is a lot for a defenceman who does not hit.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 989 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.7%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 49 against. Expected: 43.2 and 40.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
69th

The numbers rank him 31 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 64 games

Top speed
22.0 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.71 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.9 mph
36th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 989 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 989 minutes at five-on-five — 60th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tobias Bjornfot48.0%57.8%46.7%
Trevor Moore49.3%52.8%57.8%
Arthur Kaliyev60.4%48.5%54.4%

48.0% together, 57.8% for him apart and 46.7% for Bjornfot apart. He was better away from Bjornfot, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Bjornfot.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

148 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 70% from beyond forty.