Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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34

Arthur Kaliyev

Los Angeles Kings Right Wing

The 12th-most shots per 60 of 393 forwards at 12:39 a night, off the 5th-percentile slot share and the hardest shot on the club.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21LAK1101-100001100.014:42
2021-22LAK80141327-3376021947.212:39
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—81151328-4376021957.712:41

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 13 assists in eighty games at 12:39 a night, at 21, in his first real NHL season. Minus-3. Thirty-third overall in 2019.

12:39 is the 19th percentile among forwards and he played not one second short-handed, so what follows is a fourth-line workload with a first-line shot rate inside it.

The Finesse Game

11.50 shots per 60 is the 12th-most of the 393 qualified forwards in the league. At twelve and a half minutes a night. That is the whole player in one number.

Where they came from is the caution. 36 per cent from the slot is the 5th percentile and a 31-foot median is the 92nd — he shoots from outside, constantly, and 7.2 per cent is the 13th percentile. The engine is 98.8 mph, the 14th-hardest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers and the hardest on this roster.

1.26 even-strength points per 60 is the 20th percentile and a third of his points came on the power play. 58.3 per cent of the attempts is the 13th-highest of 393 forwards and 56.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 89th percentile — his ice wins, and it wins in soft minutes: 58.2 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, more than five-sixths of the league.

The Physical Game

1.84 hits per 60 is the 18th percentile and 0.71 blocks the 5th. He is 6-2 and 212 and does none of it.

0.36 penalties drawn per 60 is the 8th percentile against 0.77 taken, and the net is the 10th. He neither forces contact nor benefits from it.

The Intangibles

23.3 mph is the 91st percentile and 10.08 miles per 60 the 88th — he is quick and he covers ground, which is not what a perimeter shot chart would predict.

The profile is one of the clearest in the edition. A 21-year-old taking the twelfth-most shots per 60 in hockey, with the fifth-smallest slot share and the fourteenth-hardest release, on a fourth line. Everything here says the tool is real and the location is wrong.

What no data can say is whether a club teaches him to shoot from twelve feet closer, or whether he is what he is. The upside case does not require him to change: at 11.50 shots per 60, an average shooting percentage is a twenty-five-goal season.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    30.8% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 862 minutes

Expected goals
56.5%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
58.3%
98th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 30 against. Expected: 38.0 and 29.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
92nd

The numbers rank him 75 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
23.3 mph
94th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.86 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.13 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.8 mph
98th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 862 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.5% — 3.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 862 minutes at five-on-five — 46th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Blake Lizotte53.7%59.1%49.5%
Brendan Lemieux55.5%57.2%50.2%
Sean Durzi60.4%54.4%48.5%

53.7% together, 59.1% for him apart and 49.5% for Lizotte apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Lizotte behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

250 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 31% from beyond forty.