Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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24

Scott Mayfield

New York Islanders Defense

Six foot four, 430 career penalty minutes, and no goals on 36 shots.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14NYI5000-3700070.017:22
2015-16NYI6101-411000425.017:07
2016-17NYI25279-135000395.114:08
2017-18NYI4721012-645000583.517:51
2018-19NYI7941519+18680101043.918:44
2019-20NYI675813+853001985.119:57
2020-21NYI5621315+238000792.519:29
2021-22NYI6131518-555002803.819:46
2022-23NYI8261824+8830011195.021:02
2023-24NYI41055-735000360.018:46
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—4692591116+104300146244.019:10

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

41 games, no goals and 5 assists, 35 penalty minutes, 18:46 a night and minus-7. He took 42.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 660 minutes, the 10th percentile, and his ice went 20-24 against an expectation of 21.06-27.98.

One goal of scoring that did not arrive and four fewer conceded than the chances called for. That 42.9 per cent is the worst chance share of any defenceman on the roster, in a season he played half of.

The Finesse Game

51 attempts at a median of 54 feet with 69 per cent from beyond 40, 36 on goal, none of them a goal.

91 career assists in 469 games and 25 goals. There is no offence and there has never been. He puts it off the glass and changes.

The Physical Game

He hits hard at 6-4 and 215, and 430 career penalty minutes in 469 games is what that costs.

He will fight, clears the crease, and cannot be moved from in front of his own net. He blocks shots and kills penalties, and the stick comes out when he has been beaten wide.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2011 out of St. Louis, Missouri, ten seasons, 469 games and 116 points, all of it for one organisation.

He is 32 and played forty-one games. On a blue line where Pulock and Pelech each missed twenty-four, a third-pair right-hander missing half a season is most of why the kill was twenty-sixth.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    37% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He hits hard at 6-4 and 215, and 430 career penalty minutes in 469 games is what that costs.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He will fight, clears the crease, and cannot be moved from in front of his own net.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He will fight, clears the crease, and cannot be moved from in front of his own net.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He will fight, clears the crease, and cannot be moved from in front of his own net.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He blocks shots and kills penalties, and the stick comes out when he has been beaten wide.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He blocks shots and kills penalties, and the stick comes out when he has been beaten wide.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He blocks shots and kills penalties, and the stick comes out when he has been beaten wide.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He puts it off the glass and changes.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 660 minutes

Expected goals
42.9%
10th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.1%
3rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 20 for, 24 against. Expected: 21.1 and 28.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
10th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 41 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.44 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.6 mph
29th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 660 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYI took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.9% — 6.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
660 minutes at five-on-five — 29th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mike Reilly48.0%40.7%54.9%
Brock Nelson43.2%42.8%50.6%
Kyle Palmieri43.6%42.7%52.4%

48.0% together, 40.7% for him apart and 54.9% for Reilly apart. He was the one being carried: the share went with Reilly and did not follow him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

51 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 0 of them goals. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.