Ryan Hartman

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

34 goals and 31 assists in eighty-two games — 65 points, plus-31, at 18:11 a night. His previous best was the nineteen of 2016-17, and thirty-four is more than his previous three seasons produced together. Seven game-winners, a career high.

Thirtieth overall in 2013, eight seasons, 447 games, four clubs.

The Finesse Game

2.82 even-strength points per 60 is the 90th percentile and only twelve per cent of his points came on the power play — this was even-strength work.

9.62 shots per 60 is the 85th percentile at 14.2 per cent. 41 per cent from the slot is the 16th percentile at a 29-foot median, the 84th — like Kaprizov beside him, he scored from further out than the total implies.

His ice went 76-38 against an expectation of 50.57-41.37 — the best on-ice goal record on the club, and twenty-six goals above the model going forward. The chance share underneath it, 55.0 per cent, is good but nowhere near that good. Minnesota led the league in finishing by a distance and this is what that looks like on one player’s line.

He was at 55.9 per cent with Kaprizov across 1,503 attempts and 52.5 without. Alongside Alex Goligoski he dropped to 49.8 and read 57.2 apart — the club’s clearest forward-defenceman mismatch.

The Physical Game

2.90 hits per 60 is the 36th percentile, which for a man with 415 career penalty minutes is not where his reputation sits.

1.41 penalties drawn per 60 is the 91st percentile and 1.57 taken is the 92nd, and ninety-five penalty minutes came out of it with the net going the wrong way. He is in everything and comes out slightly behind, which on a club with the 15th-ranked kill is affordable and not free.

The Intangibles

9.10 miles per 60 is the 45th-least of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, 1.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 33rd-fewest, and 22.1 mph is the 29th percentile. He is slow, he does not sprint, and he covers less ground than almost anyone — and he scored thirty-four goals.

This edition keeps producing that finding and it is worth stating flatly: the chips do not measure the thing that separates scorers.

He is 28. The honest price on him is somewhere well below thirty-four goals and well above his career rate, because the shooting percentage that produced it was the 75th percentile rather than an outlier — the shot volume is what changed, and volume travels better than luck.